Finland election result

There may still be a few ballots left to count that can change things, but as of right now, results are as follows:

40 - Social Democrats
39 - Nationalists
38 - Moderates
31 - Nordic Liberals
20 - Greens
16 - Left
9 - Swedish Minority
5 - Christian Democrat
2 - Others


The Nationalists, under their new leader, proves too far right to remain in the right-wing coalition, as such, it is extremely unlikely that the Social Democrats would want to sit with the Nationalists. As such I will present the most likely coalitions.

You need 101 seats for a majority.

For the Nationalists to form a coalition, they would need to find 62 additional seats. If they managed to get the Christian Democrats and the 2 Others on board, this brings that number down to 55. Even if the Swedish party joined in, this brings that down to 46. This would mean two other parties, and the Nordic Liberals and Moderates both refused to sit with the Nationalists, under their new leader, in the current government. As such any coalition that includes the Nationalists is unlikely.

For the current government, whose core is the Moderates and Nordic Liberals, to continue, they would require 32. With the Christian Democrats, Other parties, and Swedish party, this brings things down to 15. While the Greens or Left party could complete this, it is simply more likely for the parties to sit with the Social Democrats instead. As such, we will look at them in the lead of a coalition.

With the Greens and Left, the Social Democrats would still need 25 additional seats, meaning either the Moderates or the Nordic Liberals.

A Social Democrat coalition is more likely to include the Nordic Liberals than the Moderates. Their combined total is 71, meaning a need for 30 additional seats. There are two ways to obtain these seats. First, is to bring the Moderates into the coalition. Second, is to bring the Greens, Swedish Minority, and one of the "Other" parties into it. Both are somewhat likely, and will depend on how the negotiations progress. My money is on a coalition over the centre, including the Social Democrats, Moderates, and Nordic Liberals.