Israel election projection

Scenario 1 - Gantz!

In this scenario, voters have concluded that Gantz is a good choice. This scenario most closely matches the polls as they stood today; the last day of polling. This sees little change from now to the election, and little to no "surprises". 

30 - Blue & White
28 - Likud
10 - Labour
7 - Arab Opposition
6 - New Right
6 - UTJ
5 - Zehut
5 - Shas
5 - United Right

5 - Kulanu
5 - Meretz
4 - Arab List
4 - Yisrael Beiteinu


The end result of this in terms of possible coalitions is as follows.

45 - Progressive (Blue&White + Labour + Meretz)
37 - Bibi (Likud + Yisrael Beiteinu + United Right)
11 - Orthodox Parties (Shas + UTJ)
6 - New Right
5 - Zehut
5 - Kulanu
11 - Opposition* (Arab List + Arab Opposition)

*Gantz has indicated he does not want to enter into a coalition with Arab parties.

This is continued below.



Scenario 2 - Gantz?

In this scenario, voters still have reservations about Gantz. The result of this is that left-progressive types vote for parties outside of Blue & White, Labour is up as a result, as is Meretz. The United Right also gets a boost as "not voting" is an option, and if people have reservations about Gantz, those thinking of "not voting" might well decide to vote. This boosts the vote for all right-wing parties, with United Right being close to this level of support. Yisrael Beiteinu however drops below the threshold. This is in large part due to how their voters seem to behave in polling; indicating that any rush to Likud - as you might want to do to ensure they are the largest party - would harm the party.

32 - Likud

26 - Blue & White
12 - Labour
7 - Arab Opposition
6 - United Right
6 - New Right
6 - UTJ
6 - Meretz
5 - Zehut
5 - Shas
5 - Kulanu

4 - Arab List
0 - Yisrael Beiteinu

44 - Progressive (Blue&White + Labour + Meretz)
38 - Bibi (Likud + Yisrael Beiteinu + United Right)
11 - Orthodox Parties (Shas + UTJ)
6 - New Right
5 - Zehut
5 - Kulanu
11 - Opposition* (Arab List + Arab Opposition)


As you can see, this is very close to the result in Scenario 1, with a difference of a single seat.

Any Progressive alliance would require the two more centrist parties, Zehut and Kulanu, which would increase their numbers to 54 or 55. The final party will be very difficult to find. New Right might have demands Meretz can not live with, much less Labour. If New Right is swapped for Meretz, this brings us to 55 seats in both scenarios, and this would still require an additional party, such as one or both orthodox parties, but this would be difficult of Zehut is to remain.

Bibi has options of his own. The orthodox parties bring him up up to 49 or 48. New Right would bring this to 55/54, but is dependant on Bennett and Bibi patching things up. From there, again, things get complicated. Kulanu is a harder sell given that Bibi is being charged with corruption. Zehut is also difficult to get on side if there are plans to keep the Orthodox parties.

the end result is that 5 parties; UTJ, Shas, New Right, Zehut, and Kulanu, will end up deciding who the next government is.



Of course, this all assumes that Gantz will stick to his promise to not sit in a Bibi government.


edited to add - I forgot to clarify that the projection is "final" as Israeli law prohibits polls in the final 5 days of a campaign.