Israeli election - coalitions

An interesting, somewhat explosive article, in Haaretz, outlines some coalition possibilities. 

Lets start with who is willing to coalition with either side, using these numbers from my last post:

44 - Progressive (Blue&White + Labour + Meretz)
38 - Bibi (Likud + Yisrael Beiteinu + United Right)
11 - Orthodox Parties (Shas + UTJ)
6 - New Right
5 - Zehut
5 - Kulanu
11 - Opposition* (Arab List + Arab Opposition)

If we combine those willing to coalition with either side, we get the following:

55 - Gantz (Blue&White + Labour + Meretz + Arabs)
49 - Bibi (Likud + Yisrael Beiteinu + United Right + Shas + New Right)
16 - Either (UTJ + Zehut + Kulanu)

While UTJ (to my knowledge) has not ruled out a coalition with Gantz, for many reasons, it makes more sense to lump them into the Bibi camp.

55 - Gantz (Blue&White + Labour + Meretz + Arabs)
55 - Bibi (Likud + Yisrael Beiteinu + United Right + Shas + New Right + UTJ)
10 - Either (Zehut + Kulanu)

This is where we run into the problem that both Kulanu and Zehut want the finance portfolio. It is quite possible, however, that Zehut could be convinced to join at another price. So what would these two alternative possible governments look like.

65 seat Bibi government

29 - Likud

6 - United Right

6 - UTJ
5 - New Right

5 - Shas

5 - Zehut
5 - Kulanu

4 - Yisrael Beiteinu

This would be a terribly unstable government prone to infighting and likely would not last very long; with another election thus being likely in early 2020.

65 seat Gantz government
29 - Blue & White
10 - Labour
7 - Arab Opposition
5 - Meretz

5 - Zehut
5 - Kulanu
4 - Arab List

This government however would be nearly impossible. It would require both arab parties for a comfortable majority (65 seats) and at least the Tibi-Hadash alliance for a bare majority (61) Gantz himself has said he is not keen on a coalition with the arab parties, and trying to get the more moderate parties (Kulanu and Zehut) on board with pro-arab policies would be difficult if not impossible. This government would likely not even be able to form

Option 3 - Defections

29 - Likud or Blue&White

10 - Defectors

26 - Others (United Right + UTJ + New Right + Shas + Yisrael Beiteinu, or, Labour + Combined Arabs + Meretz) 

More likely coming from Blue&White and going to Likud than the opposite, it is possible that a subset of MK's from either 'side' could break off from their parties to form their own, new, grouping. The group perhaps most susceptible to this is either Blue & White, potentially involving Moshe Ya'alon, with an Anti-bibi faction from Likud being much less likely. It is also possible, especially from the smaller parties with very large-personalty leaders (New Right, Kulanu, Zehut, and Yisrael Beiteinu) could have their MK's abandon the leader if they feel he has put the wrong foot forward. 

Regardless, this is likely going to be one of the more interesting and exciting elections and coalition formations in Israel.