Friday, April 12, 2019

Australia to vote on May 18th (and a finland 'projection')

Australia will be holding elections this spring after all. As such I'd like to outline the schedule for the next few weeks.

14th - Finland
16th - Alberta
17th - Indonesia
21st - Ukraine
23rd - PEI
May 2nd - UK Local elections
8th - South Africa
18th - Australia
19th - India (final round)
26th - Belgium
June 17th - Denmark

Finland has not had many polls; but using the latest poll and adding the current trendline to it, we get the following numbers:

40 - Social Democrats
36 - Nationalists
32 - Moderates
32 - Nordic Liberalism
24 - Greens
16 - Left
10 - Swedish Minority
10 - Christian Democrat

These numbers are quick and rough estimates, so take them with a grain of salt. Regardless, 101 is needed for a majority. This would give the Social Democrats the prime position. The last government they were in was a grand coalition covering the centre, where they were one of the Jr Partners. Prior to this they made up the bulk of a government headed by the Centre Party, the Nordic Liberals. The last government they lead was also across the centre.

A coalition between the Social Democrats, Moderates, and Liberals is thus possible. However, given history, it is also possible that a more left leaning coalition of the Social Democrats, Centre Party, Greens, and the Swedish Party, could form.

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