Thursday, April 14, 2016

Manitoba; prediction based on math

I've been able to apply some math to the prediction within Winnipeg itself, using a rolling poll average. While I do caution that the small sample size may mean the polls are off, and, the small riding size may introduce local variables that are not accounted for, this is where things currently stand.

Note that I've included a date and time stamp on this map to make clear which polls are and are not included in this prediction.

Note that this prediction was updated from the original at 11:15am on the 12th. The change is the removal of the Liberal seat in Brandon East due to a new poll edging the party down.

Note further that this prediction was updated again at 4pm on the 13th, to include information from the Debates. This has changed things as follows:

The Liberals are effectively dead. They will be fighting to get 8% in the polls and beat their popular vote from last time. Their increase in seats will be due to the NDP's failures. The drop off in the Liberal vote will also allow a point or two to go to the Greens who may end the election over 5% provincewide. Beddome, who is personally popular, is running in a different riding than the one he ran in last election, had he chosen to stick with his old riding, there might be some Green on this map, but given the switch, the best he can hope for is about 20%-25% of the vote. There is still an outside chance that vote splits may mean that is enough for him to win.

I've also re-assigned a point or two of the Liberal vote to the PC Party, which changes nothing, and also, a few points back to the NDP. With the realization that the Liberals are not an alternative force, I predict that many disgruntled NDP voters will hold their nose and cast their ballot for the NDP, resulting in a very slight boost.

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