Tuesday, April 19, 2016

Manitoba: fun stuff

First, there will be no update to the projection. While there was a new poll, it only served to show the current projection carries weight.

So, I decided to have some fun. Remember when we "de-merged" the Saskatchewan Party? I decided to create a "Saskatchewan Party of Manitoba" to show what is likely when we merge the PC party and Liberals. First, a caveat; it is not a simple addition, we do see differences in areas where the NDP does well and the PC Party does poorly; in that the Liberal vote actually goes to the NDP more than it does to the newly merged party. Regardless, on with the map:

As you can see, you end up with a "Saskatchewan sized majority" with the "Saskatchewan Party of Manitoba" taking an overwhelming majority. Not quite as large as in Saskatchewan, but nearly. Do not fret, however, as applying this to the most recent election still results in an NDP majority:

So, I decided, lets see what else we can do. What if we created a "Reverse Saskatchewan Party" - IE a merger of the NDP and Liberals. This is the basic result for the current election:

As you can see we still have a right-wing majority, unsurprising when they are polling at or over 50%. So I thought, what else can I do? The answer was to just plain erase the NDP and Liberals, and have the Greens be the only opposition to the PC Party:

There is an area of Central Winnipeg where the PC Party does poorly. To this I added the riding James Beddome is running in (the southernmost riding) to give the Greens 8. You'll notice a break in the pattern, the Greens do not win the northern ridings. In fact, it seems the PC Party has a bit more pull with first nations voters than the Greens do. So what else can we do? Well if we can unmerge a party, why not do it again?

This is an estimation of the current election, if the Tories were still divided like they were, Federally, in the 90's.

This was difficult. In particular, deciding how to split things. In the end I decided to go with splitting things similarly to how they were in 1997. Brian Pallister, at the time was a PC Candidate. Later, he decided to join the Canadian Alliance, but we have some different circumstances here. I could go on for paragraphs outlining why, but I'll just say that the PC Party would be the dominant force here in Manitoba. Pallister would also be PC Leader. As such, I've determined the following result:

As you can see, most of the strength of the win comes from Winnipeg. The Reform and PC Parties actually had quite a battle in many rural areas of Manitoba, but within Winnipeg, the PC Party was clearly ahead.

Regardless, these are just for fun. Tonight we'll see the real results.

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