Still no new public polls in Quebec

I have been trying to keep my own projection up, by reverse-engineering the projections of others; but that can only get me so far.

There is also an election in Sweden that's coming up on Sunday that I plan to cover after the fact. The polls have been very stable over the long term there, and as such, there's not much to discuss. The upward blip from the neo-Nationalist SD (Swedish Democrats) has been cancelled out through the campaign, and while they will gain from the last election, the current polling is most certainly not a huge "win" for the party by any means.

Another Quebec Update

I just want to start by drawing attention to this
wikipage on quebec polling for some context for something I will bring up later in this post.

In order to make this projection I've had to do some reverse-engineering of the work of others such as QC125 and TCTC

Quebec polling has been very light to non existent so far in the election. I am hopeful that this is due to the fact the election just started and that polling will pick up. Regardless, polling is very hard to come by right now with only mainstreet doing polls, and those polls being behind paywalls.

Full disclosure that I was able to get access to Ontario's paywalled mainstreet polling thanks to the goodwill of mainstreet head Quito Maggi. I will not be doing the same for Quebec for two reasons. First, it would be extremely ungrateful; to ask, and second, I still fundamentally disagree on a moral level with this business model.

As I see it, if you have done a poll that is unable to be put on wikipedia, you've not done a poll.

That is why I am not very impressed when the head of Leger polling decided to smack talk Mr. Maggi.

Mr. Leger has no business smack talking the only man actually doing daily polls, even if those polls are paywalled.

By introducing this inflammatory rhetoric, you are drawing attention to the fact that there has been a grand total of one single poll done during the 11 days of the election.

This is both pathetic and shameful. Quebec is the 2nd largest province in Canada, with 8M people, and to have it so poorly polled is offensive.

Worse, it reminds people of the poor polling over in NB which, in fairness, is actually to be expected due to its size (700K) and, in my mind, brings up the fact that since MIRA collapsed - the agency that oversaw polling in Canada - that abacus polling no longer includes full PDFs of their polls.

From where I sit, as someone on social support, here, on the morning of September 4th 2018, the entire Canadian polling industry seems to be in utter shambles. If you wanted to infuriate me, I could hardly think of a better way than to start smack talking one another when the sort of rubbish you can see in the link at the top of this post is the best you can do.

Quebec Update

Just a quick update on the latest quebec projection

this is all based on polls (no "gut" added in)

A few quick notes

1 - I'm working on getting more Bernier data, but so far, what's been released is very limited.

2 - I'm working on more NB stuff, but again, data is quite limited.

3 - As a video gamer, and, suspecting my small audience is somewhat similar to me, its likely most of you have heard of or will soon heard of the Jacksonville shooting. I want to point you towards this post on my personal blog. The US has a violence problem, taking away their guns will just encourage them to use knives. US culture needs to be fixed and cleansed of its violent ways, doing this will decrease gun violence.

Updated Quebec Projection

CAQ's majority is narrowing.

Quebec and the possible

First, I want to introduce my now complete Quebec map, already updated with the latest projection

Note the word "Projection" as I now use hard simple math to make these.

As usual, any quebec projection comes with caution.

I've taken a recent mainstreet poll, which detailed 2nd choices, and have applied some math to this.

Assuming that each party takes its maximum - that is it takes (away from the other parties) 2nd choice voters, and, assuming it takes its minimum - that is, it only takes voters without a 2nd choice, the range parties can take is as follows:

CAQ 44.6% - 8.7%
PLQ 33.5% - 12.9%
PQ 36.9% - 6.1%
QS 22.7% - 3.0%


Lets examine each party in turn with their maximum

First the CAQ.

CAQ 44.6
PLQ 19.9
PQ 13.0
QS 11.8

The CAQ would easily win a large majority.




Next is the PLQ

CAQ 26.8
PLQ 33.5
PQ 16.5
QS 12.5

The Liberals would fail to win a majority even at these levels




Next is the PQ.

CAQ 19.8
PLQ 22.8
PQ 36.9
QS 9.8

Part of the reason the PQ would do so very well, is a huge fraction of the potential PQ voters are voting for the CAQ and QS, and hence, the PQ remains their "second" choice. The reality is that the PQ is on the way down, not up.





Lastly the QS

CAQ 29.2
PLQ 23.9
PQ 13.5
QS 22.7

The CAQ would still win a majority, and the PLQ would be the official opposition; but the QS would clearly displace the PQ as the party of sovereigntism.

The sum of this is that the ridings which are "too close to call" 

are a majority of all seats.

New Brunswick Prediction

Again, this is a "prediction" and has not gone through the same math as projections do.

High weight is given to ridings without incumbents switching parties.

I also recommend keeping an eye on Oromocto where the son of Ab Rector, former leader of the CoR, is running for PANB.

Both CoR and PANB are similar in many ways to the old Reform Party and Canadian Alliance.

The Liberals have the edge here, the sole NDP seat is very weak and could easily be retained by the Liberals, and even without it they win an extremely narrow majority; with 4 opposition parties it will not be hard for the Liberals to find someone to agree with them on nearly every bill.

edited to add - please note I coloured in the incorrect riding, Moncton south is not going NDP. Saint John Harbour however may.