Tuesday, August 21, 2018

New Brunswick Prediction

Again, this is a "prediction" and has not gone through the same math as projections do.

High weight is given to ridings without incumbents switching parties.

I also recommend keeping an eye on Oromocto where the son of Ab Rector, former leader of the CoR, is running for PANB.

Both CoR and PANB are similar in many ways to the old Reform Party and Canadian Alliance.

The Liberals have the edge here, the sole NDP seat is very weak and could easily be retained by the Liberals, and even without it they win an extremely narrow majority; with 4 opposition parties it will not be hard for the Liberals to find someone to agree with them on nearly every bill.

edited to add - please note I coloured in the incorrect riding, Moncton south is not going NDP. Saint John Harbour however may.


  1. Man, you sure do love giving smaller parties seats on a whim. The NDP are dead in the water throughout the entire province - SJ Harbour won't be going for them, it'll likely be a Tory pick-up.

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