Thursday, August 23, 2018

Quebec and the possible

First, I want to introduce my now complete Quebec map, already updated with the latest projection

Note the word "Projection" as I now use hard simple math to make these.

As usual, any quebec projection comes with caution.

I've taken a recent mainstreet poll, which detailed 2nd choices, and have applied some math to this.

Assuming that each party takes its maximum - that is it takes (away from the other parties) 2nd choice voters, and, assuming it takes its minimum - that is, it only takes voters without a 2nd choice, the range parties can take is as follows:

CAQ 44.6% - 8.7%
PLQ 33.5% - 12.9%
PQ 36.9% - 6.1%
QS 22.7% - 3.0%

Lets examine each party in turn with their maximum

First the CAQ.

CAQ 44.6
PLQ 19.9
PQ 13.0
QS 11.8

The CAQ would easily win a large majority.

Next is the PLQ

CAQ 26.8
PLQ 33.5
PQ 16.5
QS 12.5

The Liberals would fail to win a majority even at these levels

Next is the PQ.

CAQ 19.8
PLQ 22.8
PQ 36.9
QS 9.8

Part of the reason the PQ would do so very well, is a huge fraction of the potential PQ voters are voting for the CAQ and QS, and hence, the PQ remains their "second" choice. The reality is that the PQ is on the way down, not up.

Lastly the QS

CAQ 29.2
PLQ 23.9
PQ 13.5
QS 22.7

The CAQ would still win a majority, and the PLQ would be the official opposition; but the QS would clearly displace the PQ as the party of sovereigntism.

The sum of this is that the ridings which are "too close to call" 

are a majority of all seats.

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