Wednesday, September 23, 2015
23SEP2015 - Small 63
Not much commentary here. Tories manage to pick up a NS riding (compared to previous projections)
23SEP2015 - Massive Update, Front Page
I've done a massive update to the ElectoMatic. It's still "broken" but it works far better.
Given the difficulty of uploading a huge number of images, I've broken down the more detailed updates into sub-pages. The updates will be broken down as follows:
The Small 63
These are the 63 ridings in "smaller provinces and territories". In short, the Atlantic, as well as the Central Prairies (Manitoba and Saskatchewan) and the Northern Territories. These 63 seats are from provinces and territories that are limited by the Grandfather clause, and as such, these 63 seats, while they may have moved around within their respective provinces, have remained since the mid 70's. They are 14 seats for Manitoba, 14 for Saskatchewan, 11 for Nova Scotia, 10 for New Brunswick, 7 for Newfoundland, 4 for PEI, 1 for Nunavut, 1 for Yukon, and 1 for the Northwest Territories.
The West
Given that Manitoba and Saskatchewan are already accounted for, this "West" consists only of two provinces, Alberta with 34 seats, and BC with 42 seats. These 76 seats easily out number the small 63 and are an important battleground this election with the Tories trying to hold on against not only resurgent NDP numbers, but increasing Liberal numbers as well.
Quebec
We finally get into some of the largest provinces with Quebec and it's 78 seats. This update will focus on this province and will will document the successes and failures of the NDP and Liberals to capture the province.
Ontario
It is in Ontario that we truly see huge masses of votes. The greater GTA has 71 seats all to itself, a number able to compete with either Quebec or our definition of The West. This leaves a whopping 50 seats for the rest of Ontario. If the Tories are to win the election, they will need to win here.
For now, the front-page, and as such, national summary. Expect 4 more updates over the next few hours detailing the projection update.
Given the difficulty of uploading a huge number of images, I've broken down the more detailed updates into sub-pages. The updates will be broken down as follows:
The Small 63
These are the 63 ridings in "smaller provinces and territories". In short, the Atlantic, as well as the Central Prairies (Manitoba and Saskatchewan) and the Northern Territories. These 63 seats are from provinces and territories that are limited by the Grandfather clause, and as such, these 63 seats, while they may have moved around within their respective provinces, have remained since the mid 70's. They are 14 seats for Manitoba, 14 for Saskatchewan, 11 for Nova Scotia, 10 for New Brunswick, 7 for Newfoundland, 4 for PEI, 1 for Nunavut, 1 for Yukon, and 1 for the Northwest Territories.
The West
Given that Manitoba and Saskatchewan are already accounted for, this "West" consists only of two provinces, Alberta with 34 seats, and BC with 42 seats. These 76 seats easily out number the small 63 and are an important battleground this election with the Tories trying to hold on against not only resurgent NDP numbers, but increasing Liberal numbers as well.
Quebec
We finally get into some of the largest provinces with Quebec and it's 78 seats. This update will focus on this province and will will document the successes and failures of the NDP and Liberals to capture the province.
Ontario
It is in Ontario that we truly see huge masses of votes. The greater GTA has 71 seats all to itself, a number able to compete with either Quebec or our definition of The West. This leaves a whopping 50 seats for the rest of Ontario. If the Tories are to win the election, they will need to win here.
For now, the front-page, and as such, national summary. Expect 4 more updates over the next few hours detailing the projection update.
Tuesday, September 22, 2015
Analysis for September 22nd
A few things I've noticed.
First, the gains the Liberals had in Ontario seems to be slowly slipping away. The Tories are inching ahead. This is likely due to the fact that we are further and further away from the days (or perhaps the day) where Trudeau and his policies were lead stories in the news. His announcement that he'd be willing to run a deficit seemed to really catch attention and differentiate him from Mulcair and Harper. However, two things are impacting that.
First, it's been a while. We've not really seen Trudeau, or any other leader, be the lead in the news due to their policies in a while. Parties are doing more reacting than they are acting.
Second, according to the Tories, the deficit is gone. This also has taken a bit of the wind out of this argument as it would mean going back to deficit rather than staying with one.
Second, the NDP seems to be running into some trouble in Quebec. This seems focused on racism, if I may be so bold. There are simply some in Quebec who are anti-islam. Sure you can say "it's not racism, it's religionism" but the impact is the same, the motivation is the same, and the pure ignorant hate is the same.
This has boosted the Bloc numbers, though not enough to be winning seats, but also seems to be increasing Liberal fortunes.
So what's happening and why?
Simple put, about 2/3rds of Canadians want a change in government. The big issue is they are split between the Liberals and NDP. The only thing they know for certain is that they do not want Harper to remain PM.
At this time, when the Tories are second, or perhaps even third, that means these voters still have the luxury of thinking and waiting to make up their mind. With the CPC increasing in Ontario, this is becoming a tougher sell. People will need to decide who they want, Mulcair and the NDP, or Trudeau and the Liberals, and when they do and the momentum starts to swing, the Tories will be knocked out of any first place they may temporarily retake and be pushed back into second, or third.
There are a few things on the horizon.
I'm watching the NDP numbers with increased attention. There is some indication the NDP may be losing their core base. Fewer and fewer people are telling pollsters they voted NDP last time. This is a huge problem for the party if it continues. Why? Well in the last Ontario election, there were fewer people who admitted to voting PC than actually did in the prior election, and, the PC Party was thus over-estimated in the polls. In 2012, fewer Albertans admitted voting Wildrose, and they underperformed the polls. In BC it was the NDP that suffered. And in Quebec, at least for the first half of the election, the PQ.
If the NDP continues on this trend - where fewer people admit to having voted NDP last time than reality dictates - it means the NDP will not perform as well as the polls indicate. My suspicion is this comes from Quebec, and if true, it could mean that the margin between the NDP and the Bloc could shrink by as much as 10% from the final election poll to the election itself.
As always, I'll keep you updated on the goings on.
~Teddy
First, the gains the Liberals had in Ontario seems to be slowly slipping away. The Tories are inching ahead. This is likely due to the fact that we are further and further away from the days (or perhaps the day) where Trudeau and his policies were lead stories in the news. His announcement that he'd be willing to run a deficit seemed to really catch attention and differentiate him from Mulcair and Harper. However, two things are impacting that.
First, it's been a while. We've not really seen Trudeau, or any other leader, be the lead in the news due to their policies in a while. Parties are doing more reacting than they are acting.
Second, according to the Tories, the deficit is gone. This also has taken a bit of the wind out of this argument as it would mean going back to deficit rather than staying with one.
Second, the NDP seems to be running into some trouble in Quebec. This seems focused on racism, if I may be so bold. There are simply some in Quebec who are anti-islam. Sure you can say "it's not racism, it's religionism" but the impact is the same, the motivation is the same, and the pure ignorant hate is the same.
This has boosted the Bloc numbers, though not enough to be winning seats, but also seems to be increasing Liberal fortunes.
So what's happening and why?
Simple put, about 2/3rds of Canadians want a change in government. The big issue is they are split between the Liberals and NDP. The only thing they know for certain is that they do not want Harper to remain PM.
At this time, when the Tories are second, or perhaps even third, that means these voters still have the luxury of thinking and waiting to make up their mind. With the CPC increasing in Ontario, this is becoming a tougher sell. People will need to decide who they want, Mulcair and the NDP, or Trudeau and the Liberals, and when they do and the momentum starts to swing, the Tories will be knocked out of any first place they may temporarily retake and be pushed back into second, or third.
There are a few things on the horizon.
I'm watching the NDP numbers with increased attention. There is some indication the NDP may be losing their core base. Fewer and fewer people are telling pollsters they voted NDP last time. This is a huge problem for the party if it continues. Why? Well in the last Ontario election, there were fewer people who admitted to voting PC than actually did in the prior election, and, the PC Party was thus over-estimated in the polls. In 2012, fewer Albertans admitted voting Wildrose, and they underperformed the polls. In BC it was the NDP that suffered. And in Quebec, at least for the first half of the election, the PQ.
If the NDP continues on this trend - where fewer people admit to having voted NDP last time than reality dictates - it means the NDP will not perform as well as the polls indicate. My suspicion is this comes from Quebec, and if true, it could mean that the margin between the NDP and the Bloc could shrink by as much as 10% from the final election poll to the election itself.
As always, I'll keep you updated on the goings on.
~Teddy
Monday, September 21, 2015
Central Nova update
Riding polls are often not trusted very well. Part of the reason is some of them don't come true. What I've discovered is that "behind" certain riding polls is a "presumed" level of provincial support. The "peaks and valleys" remain constant, but, the raw support does not.
In short, this means that a "wrong" riding poll is actually "right", but for another support level.
Why does this matter?
Central Nova
Up till now I had been presuming that Peter MacKay had a huge personal vote. The recent riding poll, however, indicates this is not the case.
In my earlier projection, I had the Tories, in Central Nova, on 25.07% of the vote.
I've gone into the ElectoMatic and removed the "No MacKay Penalty" from the party.
Central Nova is thus the only riding in the entire projection that changes, and it changes to the following:
NDP - 31.33%
CPC - 30.30%
LIB - 29.27%
GRN - 8.78%
OTH - 0.32%
Central Nova is thus, now, by far, the most winnable riding for the Tories in Nova Scotia. But, at current support levels, would go to the NDP.
"Current Support Levels" presume the Tories are way down at 17.5% in the Atlantic as a whole.
As such, any slight bump, and this riding will turn blue.
In short, this means that a "wrong" riding poll is actually "right", but for another support level.
Why does this matter?
Central Nova
Up till now I had been presuming that Peter MacKay had a huge personal vote. The recent riding poll, however, indicates this is not the case.
In my earlier projection, I had the Tories, in Central Nova, on 25.07% of the vote.
I've gone into the ElectoMatic and removed the "No MacKay Penalty" from the party.
Central Nova is thus the only riding in the entire projection that changes, and it changes to the following:
NDP - 31.33%
CPC - 30.30%
LIB - 29.27%
GRN - 8.78%
OTH - 0.32%
Central Nova is thus, now, by far, the most winnable riding for the Tories in Nova Scotia. But, at current support levels, would go to the NDP.
"Current Support Levels" presume the Tories are way down at 17.5% in the Atlantic as a whole.
As such, any slight bump, and this riding will turn blue.
Good morning, folks!
I decided to throw the doors open a few hours early, and we officially opened last night. Feel free to check out that post here.
I also have a few more solid ideas about how this website/blog will progress.
First, we will continue to follow the Canadian Federal election - and only that - until October 19th. I'll be ramping up the time I spend developing this website during that period to match the ramping up of interest of Canadians.
Do not expect daily projection updates before October. Do not be surprised if there are two updates a day in the week before the election, and do not be surprised if there are updates to the entire nationwide projection, every few minutes, in the early hours of counting, based on the limited real hard results.
I also may not do a full riding by riding update for every province at every projection. I will let demand dictate this, and demand will be gauged by your comments. If there is the demand for such full updates, I will consider it.
Next, I will be working on adding historical results for comparison. I will be focusing on comparing one election to the next. As such, do not expect a dozen information points for elections like this one, rather, I will be combining certain things to make the comparison of one election to the next easier. As such, expect, in the case of the election above, the "Progressive" totals to include Labour, UFA, UFO, and Independent Progressive members.
I will take time and care to note where and when changes are significant and mark it as so, but will also do my best to combine results where needed to make for ease of reading. In short, you should be able to quickly reference the document to see the rise and fall of various parties, and quickly determine if we are currently looking at something unique, or something that has happened before.
That's pretty much all for now.
I also have a few more solid ideas about how this website/blog will progress.
First, we will continue to follow the Canadian Federal election - and only that - until October 19th. I'll be ramping up the time I spend developing this website during that period to match the ramping up of interest of Canadians.
Do not expect daily projection updates before October. Do not be surprised if there are two updates a day in the week before the election, and do not be surprised if there are updates to the entire nationwide projection, every few minutes, in the early hours of counting, based on the limited real hard results.
I also may not do a full riding by riding update for every province at every projection. I will let demand dictate this, and demand will be gauged by your comments. If there is the demand for such full updates, I will consider it.
Next, I will be working on adding historical results for comparison. I will be focusing on comparing one election to the next. As such, do not expect a dozen information points for elections like this one, rather, I will be combining certain things to make the comparison of one election to the next easier. As such, expect, in the case of the election above, the "Progressive" totals to include Labour, UFA, UFO, and Independent Progressive members.
I will take time and care to note where and when changes are significant and mark it as so, but will also do my best to combine results where needed to make for ease of reading. In short, you should be able to quickly reference the document to see the rise and fall of various parties, and quickly determine if we are currently looking at something unique, or something that has happened before.
That's pretty much all for now.
Why you can't have my election file (actually you can if you ask nice)
I am willing to share the spreadsheet file that I use to project these elections, but, I warn you; it's broken.
Let me clarify.
How it is supposed to work:
You find a new poll or poll average you want to put into the program.
You open the program.
You put in the numbers.
Automatic Math.
More automatic math.
More automatic math.
The results come out the other end.
How it currently works
You find a new poll or poll average you want to put into the program.
You open the program.
You put in the numbers.
Math.
(program has stalled)
It will produce the results wanted, but, it does not do so automatically. You can force it to work properly using various means and methods, but the reality is, this file is incomplete.
Why?
Well, frankly, after 2011, I actually quit making projections. I retired. I did not really expect anyone would want to see my 2015 projections that badly. I was not expecting to start my own website, and as such, my crappy incomplete file would serve only to satisfy my own curiosity.
If I find the time, I might try to fix the problems, but given how close we are to the election, it's frankly just a better option to start from scratch using the official results when they are published some time in November.
Still. If you really want the file, e-mail me. I go by TheNewTeddy everywhere, twitter, facebook, and on e-mail. E-mail is the best way to reach me if you want the file, and I can be found @ hotmail.com
Let me clarify.
How it is supposed to work:
You find a new poll or poll average you want to put into the program.
You open the program.
You put in the numbers.
Automatic Math.
More automatic math.
More automatic math.
The results come out the other end.
How it currently works
You find a new poll or poll average you want to put into the program.
You open the program.
You put in the numbers.
Math.
(program has stalled)
It will produce the results wanted, but, it does not do so automatically. You can force it to work properly using various means and methods, but the reality is, this file is incomplete.
Why?
Well, frankly, after 2011, I actually quit making projections. I retired. I did not really expect anyone would want to see my 2015 projections that badly. I was not expecting to start my own website, and as such, my crappy incomplete file would serve only to satisfy my own curiosity.
If I find the time, I might try to fix the problems, but given how close we are to the election, it's frankly just a better option to start from scratch using the official results when they are published some time in November.
Still. If you really want the file, e-mail me. I go by TheNewTeddy everywhere, twitter, facebook, and on e-mail. E-mail is the best way to reach me if you want the file, and I can be found @ hotmail.com
Sunday, September 20, 2015
Grand Opening!
I know it's still the evening of the 20th, but I've decided to throw open the doors of this website.
Sadly, my time is extremely limited, but, I do have a full projection, fully up to date, ready to go.
Expect more analysis in the coming days. For now, straight to the numbers and the maps.
Sadly, my time is extremely limited, but, I do have a full projection, fully up to date, ready to go.
Expect more analysis in the coming days. For now, straight to the numbers and the maps.
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