Monday, September 27, 2021

27SEP2021 updates (so many updates!)


Lets jump right into the latest polls:

ITN is down from 23.8% to 13.5%
DB is down from 12.5% to 11.9%
IBG is down from 5.0% to 3.3%

GERB is down from 23.2% to 22.6%
BSP is up from 13.2% to 14.5%
DPS is down from 10.6% to 9.8%

PP is new, and sits at 10.8%

Anti-Corruption is down from 41.3% to 39.5%
Establishment is down from 47.0% to 46.9%

As you can see, voters look set to harshly punish ITN for their refusal to form any sort of coalition. PP, for the record, is an anti-corruption party. 

I will keep an eye on the situation as it develops


I will be doing a post later this week expanding on this


Final results are in.

205 SDP
196 CDU/CSU (151/45)
118 GRN
92 FDP
83 AfD
39 LNK

The SDP has won, but by a smaller margin than expected. Analysis of this will come later as coalition discussions progress. A pan-left coalition is not possible, as, it does not have a majority, so, the most likely coalitions will include both the Greens and FDP. The only major question is which lead party will join, and currently, the SDP looks most likely.

In the election in the northern state of Mecklenburg, the SDP has won 34 seats, compared to 14 for the AfD, 12 for the CDU, 9 for Linke, 5 for the Greens and 5 for the FDP. The existing coalition is SDP-CDU, but the SDP may opt for a coalition with LNK instead this time. They do not have a majority with just the Greens. 

In Berlin, the existing pan-left coalition retains a majority and is likely to continue. The SDP won 36 seats, compared to 30 for the CDU, 24 for LNK, 32 for GRN, 13 for AFD, and 12 for FDP. 


Results are as follows:

16 - D - Independence (Moderate Conservative)
13 - B - Progressive (Nordic Agrarian Liberal)
8 - V - Left-Green (Socialist Green)
6 - S - Social Democrats (Social Democratic)
6 - F - Peoples Party (Pro-Poor, slightly populist)
6 - P - Pirate Party (Pirate)
5 - C - Reform Party (Green-Liberals)
3 - M - Centre Party (Gunnlaugsson Liberals)

The existing D-B-V coalition would retain a majority, but such a coalition has always been a bit unwieldy. 

D-B are 3 seats short of a majority. As such, I could see the two of them find another party to sit with. the Centre party is the best option ideologically, but Gunnlaugsson is still tainted by his involvement in the panama papers. Reform may be an option, as may the Peoples Party. The Peoples Party is generally seen as a party that wants to help the poor and the disabled, but, has faced accusations of racism against its leader, however, it's leader has not only disavowed past statements, but made policy counter to said past statements. How all of this plays out remains to be seen.

In Europe it is not uncommon for a month to pass without any significant news on coalition development. Norway still has no news, for example. I, as always, will monitor the situation, and keep you all updated. 

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