Tuesday, February 18, 2020

Thoughts on Irish coalition possibilities

I thought I'd try to rank the coalition options for Ireland.

SF Majority: 3%
This would see a ton of Independents on side.

SF Minority: 21%
This would see someone, likely FF, allow a SF government to form, but that the government would not have majority support.

FF-FG Coalition: 1%
Not looking likely. Only way I could see FF (or FG) with a majority

FF Minority: 8%
This would be as the result of some strange dealing, and FG would have to allow it to form.

FG Minority: 0%
FG seems to not want this to happen

Another Election: 67%
Right now this seems a pretty sure bet. SF would be able to run a proper number of candidates, and both FF and FG would have a chance to write manifestos that better reflect the wants of voters.

1 comment:

  1. Also Sinn Fein would face a lot more scrutiny which could be a negative as I've often found best for party to surge late in campaign as not enough time for others to pick apart weaknesses and usually parties focus on main competitors not parties they don't expect to win. Part of reason Alberta NDP won in 2015 but Ontario didn't in 2018 is former surged late in campaign so not enough time for attacks to sink in while latter peaked too early so PCs had time and Liberals to lesser extent to expose their vulnerabilities. Off course most wins are parties competitive all along but when you are a party thinking you have a good shot at winning you tend to have a more modest and realistic platform then if one who feels has little chance. If a party expecting to win, you try to form a broad winning coalition, if a party not expecting to, you try to find a niche area that other parties aren't representing.