Monday, February 10, 2020

Ireland election results

Results are as follows:

SF has done extremely well.

Results, in terms of seats, and first-preference votes, is as follows:

38 - FF - 22.2%
37 - SF - 24.5%
35 - FG - 20.9%
12 - Grn - 7.1%
6 - Lab - 4.4%
6 - SD - 2.9%
5 - Sol - 2.6%
1 - Aon - 1.9%
20 - Ind - 12.6%

What the leaders say to one another, say in public, and who they decide to spend time talking with, tomorrow (The 11th), will determine the shape of the next government. It is difficult if not impossible to narrow down the variables until then. However, here is a summary of the possibilities:

FF, FG, and someone else

FF and FG are, even combined, short of a majority. They would thus need additional members or parties to hit 81 members for a majority.

FG has done poorly enough that it can't make a strong argument to continue in government, as such, Varadkar, the sitting PM, is out. Micheal Martin, FF leader, would then become Taoiseach (Prime Minister) and lead this government. There are two questions however.

First, is what relationship would the parties have. Keep in mind that 90 years ago they were trying to kill one another in a civil war, and that wounds take a long time to heal. Would they be willing to form an outright coalition, or would FG have to settle for some kind of "support" deal.

Second is where would they find the additional members they'd need to make a majority, and, what price will those members demand.

SF and 'everyone else'

Surprisingly this is perhaps the most likely result at the moment. Solidarity/PBP would not be willing to work with a FG-FF coalition, and the other parties, SD, Labour, and the Greens, all lean to the left and thus have quite a bit more in common with SF than they do with FF or FG. Aontu could be seen as right-wing due to its anti-abortion stances, but a lot of the remaining issues they campaign on could be seen as friendly towards the left. Additionally, the overwhelming majority of the Independents are far more Left than they are Right.

The main difficulty here is the math; it only takes one of the other parties (Labour, Greens, or Social Democrats) to turn in order to put a FF-FG government into office, and any group of 5 or more Independents can achieve the same.

FF and SF

This is not likely. Comments made earlier today make this somewhat unlikely and unless FF takes a 180 on the issue tomorrow, I can't see this happening. If it somehow does happen, I can see SF demanding the big chair due to their popular vote victory.

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