Thursday, February 13, 2020

General Updates - Ireland, Israel, Italy, and more


FF has said they will not coalition with SF. This helps narrow down coalition options. Given what we know about the Independents, I'd break things down as follows:

79 - FF+FG+Lab (Establishment Coalition)
61 - SF+Grn+SD+Sol+Aon (Reform Coalition)
20 - Independents


87 - Establishment
73 - Reform

Keep in mind that a lot of the lines between these two groups are quite fuzzy. Labour may decide to sit with the Reformists, while the Greens could back more Establishment candidates.


I want to look at the polling gap between M5S vs FdI. If you remember, I pointed out the polling gap between M5S and PD a while back, and said that should M5S fall so low they hit PD, that things could change fast. This turned out to be exactly what happened, and resulted in the coalition breaking and the formation of a M5S-PD coalition.

Now that M5S is nearing FdI, we could see a similar situation of chaos break out if the two should meet.


Not much change in the polls, especially comparing the seats everyone has to the current latest polling figures. Quite simply, we'll likely end up back where we started, again, and it's all going to come down to who is and is not willing to sit in coalition with one another, which, as far as I can tell, has not changed. 

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