Irish election - no projections?

I had been hoping to look through a dozen different projections of the Irish elections, made by people in Ireland, but, alas, I can't find any. The only projections I can find are from the Europe Elects twitter account. I've taken those and averaged them, as well as made some of my own adjustments, and I have the following:

48 - FF
35 - FG
34 - SF
12 - Grn
6 - SD
5 - Lab
4 - S/P
3 - I4C
12 - Ind
1 - CC (speaker)

The adjustments I've made are basically to increase FF by taking 1 seat from the 4 largest parties, then lowering SF, which results in FF and FG going up.

So, why increase FF?

Simply it feels like they have 'the big mo' - IE momentum. I think undecided voters will break for them.

Why decrease SF?

The party is still controversial. FF and FG are attacking each other by accusing each other of being willing to work with SF. Keep in mind that Ireland uses a multi-member STV system, this means that transfers between parties is important. From the voters prospective, this means that SF gets ranked low on the ballot. As a result, not as many voters transfer to SF as could transfer to FF or FG.


Lastly, how accurate is this?


Not very. I could make it far more accurate, but doing so would take quite a bit of time. To do so I'd need to start with the last-election results in each seat, consider how many candidates each party is running this time in each seat (which is very important) applying my usual methods to calculate vote change, and lastly, taking transfer values from the last election and doing the math.

It is all quite possible, but it is also quite time consuming, and even in Ireland they are saying that this election isn't grabbing attention the way elections normally do.

Regardless, I'll try to refine the above projection to be better before the election on the 8th