Saturday, February 16, 2019

Spain election; Italy, Israel, and more!

First, quick commentary on Italy, and the recent media stories about M5S taking their "lowest polling numbers" in ages.

LN - the Green line, and M5S, the yellow line, are in coalition. A key reason for the coalition is their inability to get into a coalition with anyone else. FI, the blue line, was in an alliance with LN, but LN+FI does not equal a majority of seats. PD is the red line, and while M5S had somewhat considered a possible coalition with them, their policies also have some differences.

Bluntly, until the gap between PD and M5S gets smaller, nothing has actually "changed"


A snap election has been called.

You can see the full polling data here. Long story short is that a PP+C government backed by Vox would have a majority of seats, or, so close to a majority of seats that it would be very easy to get smaller parties to back them. As such, they are in the drivers seat.


You can see the polling data I use for my projections here. One reason why I don't feel any need to hide this data (IE, 'if I can get the numbers myself, why should I bother reading your website') is that I see things people can often miss. Take for example the two polls, in the 14th of Feb and 31st of Jan, that show Zehut, the Libertarian Party, winning seats. Both of them are by the same polling group. In particular, this particular 4-group alliance that released the poll; Maagar Mochot/i24News/Israel Hayom, has not done any other polling; though elements of the group, working with other elements of the group, have in the past.

This puts up all sorts of red flags for me, and tells me to be suspicious of these polls.

Compare that with Jewish Home sometimes being above and sometimes being below the threshold, which is something a wide range of pollsters agree with (many showing both at different times)


I am keeping an eye on a new party that has formed here this year.


The sitting government has been lagging in the polls; recent events may change this.

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