Monday, September 10, 2018

Sweden, quick results

I still need to get my notes together for the election (in truth I'd planned to jump back and forth between every new poll in Quebec and a post about Sweden, which is one reason I'm so upset about no Quebec polls) but I'd like to share the results of the election.

101 - S - Social Democrats
70 - M - Moderate
62 - SD - Swedish Democrats
31 - C - Centre Party
28 - V - Left Party
23 - KD - Christian Democrats
19 - L - Liberals
15 - MP - Greens

144 - Red-Green (S+MP+V)
143 - Alliance (M+C+L+KD)
62 - Swedish Democrats

No major party wants to coalition with the SD.

Why these election results are interesting is that you need 175 seats for a Majority, and both alliances are either 32 or 31 seats away. Technically a Red-Green alliance (144) supported by the Centre party (31) would have a majority (175) but this is cutting it very close. This is what I'd expected the final result of the election to be (Red-Green supported by Centre) in all honesty. Part of the problem is the Centre party is so close to dropping to 30 seats, that the 2 booths yet counted (out of 6004) could be enough to knock that extra seat away.

The weakness in the allies of the Social Democrats (my earlier poll average had them sitting on a combined 57 seats, they took a combined 43) is part of what contributes to this.

In short: this election is worse than expected for the 7 mainstream parties.

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