Monday, September 24, 2018

Questions to answer in the NB election

1 - How decisive will the Liberal win be in Francophone areas?

If "very" the Liberals could be in deep trouble elsewhere in the province, as, there's only so much share of the popular vote to go around, and polls suggest their lead is not that wide.

2 - Will the PC Party die in Francophone areas, and if so, who will do well?

Tories could be shut out, but this could open up a route for the Greens or NDP to become the default 'opposition vote' in Francophone ridings, and, if strong enough, this could even lead to some unexpected victories.

3 - Will the polls about minor parties be right?

The NDP, Greens, and Peoples Alliance have all been above 10% in certain polls (Nanos had all three above 10%, while Mainstreet has the Greens north of 16%, and Forum has PANB north of 16%) and the question of if this actually plays out in the voting will matter quite a bit. Since the infamous 1991 election, only two times (in the last two elections) has a 3rd party (the NDP) topped 10% in the polls.

4 - If these polls are right, and, if the Liberals do very well in Francophone areas, and, if nobody picks up the torch as the opposition Francophone party (all 3 of these seem at least somewhat likely at this point) then what sort of mess will the Anglophone ridings be?

We could be looking at two dozen ridings where the winner has less than a third of the vote!

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