Tuesday, September 25, 2018

NB election - results!

Note that I'm working on maps and analysis, I've posted a half dozen maps on my twitter and a link to a spreadsheet showing the riding by riding results. Most of those maps will find their way here.

The results are as follows:

22 - PC - 31.89%
21 - LIB - 37.80%
3 - PANB - 12.58%
3 - Green - 11.88%
0 - NDP - 5.01%
0 - KISS - 0.10%
0 - IND - 0.74%

To answer the questions posed in my last post:

1 - How decisive will the Liberal win be in Francophone areas?

I've not added up the riding results yet but it seems obvious the answer is "very".

2 - Will the PC Party die in Francophone areas, and if so, who will do well?

The party did not die as some had feared. While I've not done the math yet (as sorting out what the line between francophone and non-francophone riding is not easy at 1am) they likely finished second, and a quick 18 riding (francophone) model has the vote split at 55% Liberal, 22% PC, 13% Green, and 8% NDP. 

The Greens, however, did rather well, being the top-finishing 3rd party in most Acadian ridings, with the exception of those in the Bathurst area which voted NDP as their 3rd party of choice (the NDP held an MPs seat for a long time in this area)

3 - Will the polls about minor parties be right?

Yes. They were. And that poses interesting questions about how well QS is actually doing in Quebec; this implies they are, indeed, actually doing quite well, and this sets up a potentially very interesting Quebec election as a result.

4 - If these polls are right, and, if the Liberals do very well in Francophone areas, and, if nobody picks up the torch as the opposition Francophone party (all 3 of these seem at least somewhat likely at this point) then what sort of mess will the Anglophone ridings be?

All in all things were not nearly as messy as expected. Some areas were PANB Friendly while others were more PC Friendly. A quick count (again, 1am, may be wrong) shows only 11 ridings where the winner did not take at least 40% of the vote, and only 5 with winners taking under 35% of the vote (SJ Harbour, Oromocto, Fred North, Fred York, and Fred West)

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