Tuesday, June 5, 2018

Pre-Penultimate Projection

This will be my Pre-Penultimate Projection. Tomorrow morning, my Penultimate projection will come out, followed by the final projection which will post at 11:59pm on the 6th.

Since my last post, I've been directly contacted by Quito Maggi, who leads Mainstreet, and given access to the riding polls. I am deeply thankful for this and wish to make note of this for all readers.

I've used these to fine tune my spreadsheet. I note, however, that I've adjusted no riding to match the riding polls. The only riding that was changed, at all, was Guelph, and only in response to the other changes I made to the sheet. My information that "The Greens are leading by probably 1,000 or so votes" comes from a source in the Green Party that I trust, and not from the riding polls. All other changes are simply based on a far more accurate province-wide vote translation. In particular, the FF has been reduced to 0, and this has created far more realistic projections, including (somehow, and oddly) a better showing in urban areas. The LSD has been significantly toned down, and the AFF toned down as well as a result. All of this is why Guelph required an adjustment.

Note as well this projection has 0 "gut" in it. My penultimate, and final projections, will have far more of my intuition and judgement based into the numbers.

61 PC 36.91%
56 NDP 36.69%
6 LIB 20.64%
1 GRN 5.76%*

*Note that the "pop vote" for the Greens includes votes for all other parties, and as such, should be read as being reduced by 1 or 2 points.

The result of this would likely see a Ford minority, with the Libs abstaining on the throne speech, in return for a (public or private) commitment that the budget will not come until spring 2019. This would give the party time to find a new leader, for people to look at and re-judge all 3 (now 4 I suppose) parties, and allow the opposition to force an election on an actual Ford budget, one where any cuts he may need to make are public. For Ford it gives him time to get used to the position and put any party scandals behind him, and allows him to build up some experience in provincial politics.


  1. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1B5E3KyuL0X9LudhYES-DbAl8UkeNV_LaJVuBOszJ4_I/edit#gid=1072939327 to get your copy of the sheets

  2. Great work. I wholeheartedly agree with your fallout from a hypothetical PC minority. Agony for the OLP though - a few short months in which to restock a depleted war chest (I doubt the per vote subsidy will fill the coffers) and to choose new leadership, not to mention a new direction.

    Re toning down of Liberal Swing Drop, are you referencing the mild (and ti me, inexplicable) resurgence in the OLP pop vote we've witnessed since Wynne's Sat concession speech?

    And a noob question: wha are ALL and FF? Can't find an explanation in a cursory scan of your blog :(

    Finally, as one who forecasts from the gut, I will be interested in your penultimate projections! Of the ridings with which I am personally acquainted, I'm not so willing to let DVW (15) and E-L (17) go PC, not F-G (21) go NDP.

    Once again, thanks for an edifying read :)

    1. FF increased ford's vote in urban areas, and therefore by comparison, decreased it in rural areas.

  3. Wow what a change compared to your crazy predictions of a couple of days ago!