Monday, June 11, 2018

New "electomatic", crazy map shows where Libertarians can win

Note that "can win" is very generous. It shows where, in 2-3 decades, if the demographics do not change (which they will) where a Libertarian party could actually win seats.

you can view the sheets here, page 4 "projection machine" is what you want.

Note that it's not currently hooked up properly in terms of making your own projections; but the base data is all there, and as I said in my previous posts, that base math was far better at making projections than I was.

Anyway, this is all part of a series of 4 maps I plan to present, the first set of two I've decided to present now, as, I was so interested in the results:

This answers the question of "what would happen if all 5 parties which ran over 100 candidates tied in the number of seats won"

So we have 25 Tories, 25 NDPers, 25 Liberals, 25 Greens, and 24 Libertarians, as, 124 is not perfectly divisible by 5.

What's most interesting is how well the Libertarian vote matches expected vote patterns from Libertarian voters. Note that Hillier's riding goes Libertarian, as does the belt in Toronto north of the 401, west of Yonge st; both areas I've personally identified before as strong small l libertarian parts of Canada. Peel region too sees a heavy Libertarian presence, wich has been shown in the party's past performances.

We also get an idea of places a future Green government may find core voters, and see where both the Liberals and PC Party have their cores as well.

More to come.

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