Sunday, June 3, 2018

Narrative Change: Ontario

Wynne's announcement has focused the narratives around the election. By explicitly asking those swing voters who can't make up their mind on the NDP or the Tories, there is a good chance that she will bolster her own party in places where they could stop the other two parties.

How, you may wonder, would you ever calculate which ridings this would work in? The anwer goes to something I've had on my projection sheets for quite some time.

Download your copy of the updated sheets:

The LSD, or Liberal Swing Drop. This replicates the exact vote pattern you would expect to see should Wynne's gambit pay off.

As such I've raised the LSD to 7, which is extremely high given what the formula actually does. This is so high, in fact, it's impacted the AFF in a minor way, and, has forced me to use the higher of the two FF numbers. To compensate I've increased the Greens in Guelph yet again (though the current projection still shows them behind)

52 - NDP - 37.17%
49 - PC - 36.65%
23 - LIB - 21.83%

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