Wednesday, June 6, 2018

Final Projection: Ontario

I present to you, for this election, my final projection
This has honestly probably been the single most agonized over decision with regard to a final projection that I've had to make. All the data tells me that people want a majority PC government, lead by Andrea Horwath.

There's actually a lot less I have to say on this than I otherwise thought. People don't want Doug Ford, but they do want the PC Party. The problem is that this sort of thing has occurred before, and, generally, what happens is people vote for the party and not for the leader. This is not always the case, and the leader can drive the vote, but I'm not seeing that being enough here.

The other problem is that there is a lot of evidence that many people don't trust the PC Party, and, they do generally trust the NDP with another chance to govern.

In short what we are seeing happen is just enough Liberals going NDP to give Doug Ford a government, without enough Liberals staying with that party to block such a government. The NDP would need either 5 more points from the Liberals for their own Majority, or, 5 less points from the Liberals for a minority (as, many of the Liberal seats are ones that would be won against the Tories, not the NDP)

That being said, I am unconvinced that the PC lead is as strong as many people think. Ford is weak. Additionally, most of the polls showing the PC party far ahead have very uneven weightings for age. In short; I am unconvinced the people these polls are reaching are actually representative of the voting population.

Despite that, I can not ignore the overwhelming evidence that the PC party is doing well, and is likely to win tomorrow evening.

However, again, the evidence that the NDP will outperform expectations. When they ask people how they are going to vote, the same number of people say they are voting PC as say Ford is the best premier. Less people are undecided on the best premier than on the vote. To explain, look at these fictionalized numbers I've provided as an example.

1000 people polled
300 are voting PC
250 NDP
150 Liberal
300 are undecided

Same 1000 people also polled
350 think Horwath is best premier
300 think Ford is
150 think Wynne is
200 are undecided

What this tells me is the NDP will likely take a larger than expected share of the undecided voters.

Regardless, the PC lead is significant, and as such, my final projection, is as follows:


60 PC 37.86%
55 NDP 36.80%
8 LIB 20.89%
1 GRN 4.45%

Ford, and Wynne, both will be (re)-elected in their seats.

Mississauga will be where the election is decided. Had Ford won all of Mississauga he would have 62 seats, enough for a barebones majority, especially if he can convince an opposition MPP to become speaker. Had the NDP won the 3 seats they will be close in, they would have finished head of Ford. Mississauga really ends up becoming the city that decided the winner, and that winner, is Doug Ford.

Regardless, with only 60 seats, there remains a chance that a NDP-OLP coalition will take office instead. The two parties would need to agree to a solid "deal" before this happens, no informal deal will do, not with a 5 seat lead in the legislature. This means either a Peterson-Rae style "accord" or an outright coalition. Given the way the election has played out, this could well be easily possible.

Do not ignore the Greens either. They may offer Ford a way out, carbon taxes bring in a lot of revenue, revenue he will need to pay for his tax cuts. He could make the excuse that he requires Green support, and thus, needs to delete the carbon tax "later" and not now. Consider that if I'm off by even a single seat, anywhere, all of the math could be very different. A 61 seat PC party and a 1 seat Green party could form a majority, with an opposition speaker.

In the end there are two winners. Andrea Horwath, and the PC Party. It only remains to be seen whose win is bigger.

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