Saturday, May 19, 2018

Ontario update - (the lack of) movement

Due to reader feedback, I've decided to move back to a full trendline system; which means this is what I expect the end result to be on election day. As such, this result and projections by others will move closer and closer towards one another as election day approaches. I simply expect it will be they moving towards these numbers, and not the other way around.

As such, this is an update to this earlier projection.

In short, what has happened is the NDP has lost 4 seats.

Additionally, as I improve the base math I use to make these projections, some riding winners have been shuffled around.

60 - NDP
57 - PC
7 - LIB

There are a few things to take away.

1 - NDP not growing fast enough
Compared to what I expected, the NDP's growth has been a bit slow over the past three days.

2 - Tories are not falling away yet
In order for the NDP to win a majority they have to knock a few points off the PC Party, this is not yet happening

3 - Liberals still holding ground
They really need to be lower than what we are seeing for the full NDP win to emerge

4 - NDP vote is shifting
The NDP is unreasonably high in the GTA. I've yet to track down exactly why, but will continue to investigate. This contrasts with them being unreasonably low in Eastern Ontario.

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