Thursday, May 10, 2018

Lebanon and Malaysia

After digging into the results, I believe this is the best way to present the data: 

Future and Lebanese Forces campaigned and operate as two separate parties, but what unites them is opposition to Syria and Hezbollah. As such, I've combined the two in order to simplify the data. Additionally, I've combined the "other" parties into a simple "other" grouping; however they can be broken down into three smaller groupings; Socialists/Left, Moderates and Pro-Business, and Religious/Nationalist parties.

FPM and Hezbollah have a history of working together, as such, I also compare the "Pro" vs "Anti" Hezbollah parties.

This is one of the keys to understanding what happened, Hezbollah and allies won both Christians and Muslims by similar margins, and a majority of both communities. Additionally, Hezbollah and allies did well among various major groups, taking slightly under half of both Maronites, and Greek Orthodox; a majority of Melkites (Greek Catholic) and Armenians, and even a quarter of Sunni seats.

In short; the election winner is clear.

Also note I am working on a post about the Malaysian election, where the opposition secured a surprise victory, defeating the party that had previously held an unbroken string of governments going back to the independence of Malaysia from the UK.

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