Saturday, May 26, 2018

Ontario - NDP wins on the math

Today marks the end of my trend based projections as I transition to math based projections. Despite this, as I've done in every election, my gut plays a role in that math. Weighted at one third, the popular vote figures of 42.3% for the NDP, 32.1% for the Tories, and 21.7% for the Liberals, have been applied to the pure math and produced the following projection:

63 - NDP - 39.17%
49 - PC - 34.47%
12 -  LIB - 20.83%

I've also made additional corrections to the sheets, so if you wish to make your own projections, download a copy. In particular, "turnout" figures for each riding should now be correct as previously I was drawing those figures from the incorrect location.

I've also done research on the factor a Ford candidacy has on Etobicoke North, and have slightly bumped up the Ford numbers in the riding, turning it Blue. Note, however, that at this point, the figures have been bumped by more than half; more than I've ever bumped any riding in any projection, and it still remains a close race with the NDP.

As we've been expecting an NDP win for some time, the main 'story' from this is that the Liberals are holding their ground better than expected, and may walk away with a dozen or more seats at the end of the day.

No comments:

Post a Comment