Saturday, May 12, 2018

Ontario, May 12th

Quick update to the projection.

60 - PC
48 - NDP
16 - OLP

Reminder that you can play with the numbers yourself here:

I've added three special formulas to help make the projection more accurate. They are as follows.

FF or Ford Factor. This is the ability of Doug Ford to get people to vote for him in areas where "ford nation" has traditionally strong demographics such as Scarborough.

AFF or Anti-Ford Factor. This is the willingness of Liberal voters to vote NDP to stop Doug Ford. There is no opposite formula to move NDP voters to the Liberals for the simple reason that 2014's Tim Hudak was also "very scary" and, therefore, these specific NDP voters (ones willing to vote Liberal to stop the Tories) are already marked as Liberals due to the fact that I use the 2014 results as a baseline for my spreadsheet.

LSD or Liberal Swing Drop. Looking at the 2014 results for the NDP it becomes clear there are some ridings they do very well in and others they do very poor in. This is not an NDP problem, its a problem for any party with a comparatively small share of the vote. This simulates the inverse of bandwagoning, and, as such, the higher the number, the more votes the Liberals will lose in ridings that they are not strong in. Note as well this formula is tied into the actual vote share for the Liberals, and, as such, as they drop in the polls, this factor will automatically get stronger

The other three editable cells are for the province-wide share of vote for each of the three parties. You may notice that I've put the NDP above their current share in various polls; this is because I feel the party has yet to actually catch up to where they truly are. In short, voters know in their gut that they are willing to vote NDP, but their brain may not yet be aware of this.

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