updates, + SPD wins Saarland election

 In the German state of Saarland, the SPD has won the election. Currently, with votes still being counted, they are at 26 of the 51 seats, a majority. It is possible they will retain that majority as counting continues, but it is also possible they'll fall below a majority. In the latter case, there are easy coalition options with the Greens or the FDP. 

Trends elsewhere continue as they have been, but, are starting to get closer to solid. In Italy, the FdI has lead in a number of polls. In Hungary, Orban's Fidesz party has started to slightly pull away from the opposition coalition. In Israel, Pro-Netanyahu parties are getting ever closer to polling a majority. In France, Le Pen has taken a clear 2nd place on the first ballot, while remaining at a loss to Macron on the second ballot.

I'm also looking at other places. In the Philippines, the Marcos-Duterte ticket appears to be polling over 50%, quite a feat when the next two closest tickets are polling at 20% and 10% respectively. They ticket's platform would see the existing policies under Duterte Sr continue. Elections take place May 9th

Serbia also appears set to re-elect its incumbent government. Elections there take place in April 3rd.

Lebanon, hopefully, votes May 15th. They've had elections be canceled in the past. There is no reliable polling, so it is unclear who stands to gain or lose, but the 2020 explosions will almost certainly have a major impact on the result.

Unless they want to hold separate House and Senate elections, Australia goes to the polls by May 21st. Labor has a massive lead in the 2PP vote according to polling. With a margin of up to 58%-42%, this could be an effective landslide. If this holds, it would be the largest margin of victory since the 70's, or possibly 60's. If the 58%-42% figure held, it would be the widest margin of victory since 1943. However, there is good reason to believe that things will tighten as the election draws closer, as, this has happened in every recent federal election in Australia. Still, I would not be surprised to see Labor alone win over 100 seats. The Pendulum suggest the Coalition could be reduced to 40 seats total. 

Lastly, Nepal will vote some time this year. Nepalese politics is complex. It has 3 communist parties, and it is unclear what exactly the difference between them is beyond the people who lead them and may dislike the other leaders on a personal level. 

20MAR2022 updates

 A quick update on world politics.

In general, previously noted trends continue. 

Where things have 'changed', such as Brian Jean's by-election victory, the meaningful result of this, has yet to play out. 

The only major news update is the election in South Australia, which, due to the Ukraine crisis, I've not followed as close as I otherwise would have. Labor appears to have win a majority in the state. 

Beyond that, I wish to note upcoming elections.

27th of March has Saarland state-level elections. SPD lets set to finish in first.

3rd of April, Hungary votes. I will be covering that.

3rd of April, Serbia also votes. I will cover the results.

10th of April, Mexico holds a recall referendum on their president.

24th of April, Slovenia votes.

5th of May are local elections in parts of the UK. 

quick politics updates

 Elections are taking place in South Korea today. The right-wing candidate appears to have defeated the left-wing candidate for the Presidency, but counting continues, and the vote lead is small. 

I keep an eye on politics, as usual, around the world - I've yet to see any major changes in polling (outside Ukraine itself, and Russia) with the only notable trend being a 1% or 2% boost to incumbents in many western countries. 

That's all for now.

Ukraine - Partitions becoming more clear

 Now that things are slightly more clear;

This seems to be what may be going on. Let me explain;

You may have seen Russian propaganda map suggesting Ukraine is not a real country, and is only a tiny part of modern Ukraine. These maps always have the pink region "Dnipro" as part of 'real' Ukraine. It is interesting that Russian military operations seem to not be interested in this area, despite it being economically strong. Russia may, thus, have 0 desire to annex this region.

If that's true, then they also are unwilling to annex "Central Ukraine", shown in blueish purple. This contrasts with areas around Sumy, shown in reddish purple, where Russian troops already are operating.

Kharkiv and Kherson also have Russian operations, while it looks like they want to take Odessa and area as well. 

Less likely to be taken are western areas. Zhytomyr and Vinnytsia are possible targets. Khmel Oblast was part of the USSR in the 1930s and 1920s, but, is currently more strongly tied to the most western Oblasts, which, were part of Poland (and Czechoslovakia and Romania) in the 20s and 30s. 

Of course this assumes a partition is the goal. That is becoming less and less likely as the Russian military invasion has slowed down. I will, however, continue to observe the situation. 

Ukraine - possible partitions

 This is part of a post I've been working on. I've been waiting for days for Putin to make this plans clear, but, clearly, this is not happening. As such, I'm going forward with the meat and potatoes of the post I was planning:

This map shows the various regions of Ukraine, as defined by me, for the purposes of this post. 

1 - Zakarpattia Oblast (County/Province). This Oblast is unique. Some Hungarians and Romanians live here, and this area was part of Czechoslovakia until WW2. It does not behave in patterns that match the rest of Ukraine politically; As such, I'm effectively excluding this Oblast from this discussion. 

2 - Lviv Oblast. Core of the "Pro-Europe" and Pro-West sentiment in Ukraine. It is, by far, much more pro-west than any other part of Ukraine.

3 - Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast. Along with its northern neighbor, part of the the Pro-West area of Ukraine.

4 - Ternopil Oblsat. This is the 3rd Pro-West area. While not as fanatical as Lviv, these 3 would likely never want to live under Russian rule. These 3 were all part of Galicia, part of Austria-Hungary, in WW1. 

5 - Crimea Oblast. This has been part of Russia since the 2014 annexation.

6 - Donetsk Oblast. Half of this Oblast has been ruled by the Pro-Russian "Donetsk Republic" since 2014.

7 - Luhansk Oblast. Half of this Oblast has been ruled by the Pro-Russian "Luhansk Republic" since 2014.

8 - This area is generally west leaning. 

9 - This area generally leans towards Pro-Russian policies.

10 - This area has swing between Pro-Western and Pro-Russian sentiments. 

If an honest, free, fair referendum had been held, in 2013, in Crimea, Luhansk, and Donetsk, they may well have voted to join Russia, or, they may not have. The idea would have got at least 40% of the vote, however, in these areas. 

If a referendum were held in Lviv, Ternopil, and Ivano-Frankivsk, they likely would vote over 95% to join the EU. 

I will continue this post with the actual conclusion once it becomes clear what Putin is trying to do. I apologize for splitting this post in 3, but I can't for the life of me, figure out what Putin is up to.

citation; Ukraine; east vs west

This is a pre-post; in advance of a post coming up, about Ukraine and the west vs east split. I wanted to get some citations for it. The citations basically are simply the past election maps. All of them. Votes for all candidates, in all elections. I've selected a few that make good examples and present them below:

2019 opposition (pro-russia) vote: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/6/6f/%D0%91%D0%BE%D0%B9%D0%BA%D0%BE_%D0%92%D0%B8%D0%B1%D0%BE%D1%80%D0%B8_2019_%28%D0%86%29.png/1280px-%D0%91%D0%BE%D0%B9%D0%BA%D0%BE_%D0%92%D0%B8%D0%B1%D0%BE%D1%80%D0%B8_2019_%28%D0%86%29.png

2010 yanukovich (pro-russia) vote: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/98/Yanukovych_2010_1%28PR%29.png

2010 election result: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/2/26/%D0%94%D1%80%D1%83%D0%B3%D0%B8%D0%B9_%D1%82%D1%83%D1%80_2010_%D0%BF%D0%BE_%D0%BE%D0%BA%D1%80%D1%83%D0%B3%D0%B0%D1%85-en.png/1280px-%D0%94%D1%80%D1%83%D0%B3%D0%B8%D0%B9_%D1%82%D1%83%D1%80_2010_%D0%BF%D0%BE_%D0%BE%D0%BA%D1%80%D1%83%D0%B3%D0%B0%D1%85-en.png

1991 opposition (pro-west) vote: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/bf/%D0%A7%D0%BE%D1%80%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%B2%D1%96%D0%BB_%D0%92._%D0%9C..PNG/1280px-%D0%A7%D0%BE%D1%80%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%B2%D1%96%D0%BB_%D0%92._%D0%9C..PNG

1994 government (pro-russia) vote: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/48/%D0%9A%D1%83%D1%87%D0%BC%D0%B0_%D0%86%D0%86_%D1%82%D1%83%D1%80.PNG/1280px-%D0%9A%D1%83%D1%87%D0%BC%D0%B0_%D0%86%D0%86_%D1%82%D1%83%D1%80.PNG

2004 vote: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/e1/Ukraine_Wahlen_2004.png

1999 opposition (pro-russia) vote: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/9e/%D0%A1%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%BE%D0%BD%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%BA%D0%BE_%D0%86%D0%86_%D1%82%D1%83%D1%80.PNG/1280px-%D0%A1%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%BE%D0%BD%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%BA%D0%BE_%D0%86%D0%86_%D1%82%D1%83%D1%80.PNG

Russia invades Ukraine

 more to come with time. Invasion will likely be limited in scope. will update as more becomes available