The by-elections today, federally, in Canada, are still counting ballots. As such none of these results are final. Additionally, its quite likely that the exact percentages will change, but here are the results as of now. Keep in mind that the advance polls don't seem to be in yet, and, hopefully, when they are, turnout will spike.
BURNABY SOUTH (196 of 196) 30% turnout
39% - NDP (+4%) - Singh
26% - LIB (-8%)
23% - CPC (-4%)
11% - PPC (+11%)
YORK--SIMCOE (136 of 136) 20% turnout
54% - CPC (+4%)
29% - LIB (-7%)
8% - NDP (-1%)
4% - PC (+4%) - Baxter
3% - GRN (+-0%)
2% - PPC (+2%)
OUTREMONT (170 of 170) 21% turnout
40% - LIB (+6%)
26% - NDP (-18%)
13% - GRN (+9%)
11% - BQ (+3%)
7% - CPC (-3%)
2% - PPC (+2%)
Singh, the NDP leader, has won his by-election. As I mentioned in my earlier post, that's all that matters tonight. The PPC result in Burnaby is unimportant, as is the NDP result in Outremont. The former does not indicate PPC strength in BC, nor does the latter indicate NDP weakness in Quebec.
Interestingly, Dorian Baxter, the PC candidate, took 4th in York-Simcoe. This white immigrant from Kenya has run for the party before, and is a well known elvis impersonator, and serves as the pastor for the Christ the King Graceland Independent Anglican Church of Canada in Newmarket, which neighbours the riding.
updated with final results
Tuesday, February 26, 2019
Monday, February 25, 2019
Quick post on Singh and Burnaby South
Apologies in that I did not have the free time I planned to today; but wanted to simply say that Singh needs to win this by-election
The results should be available here when the polls close
regardless, right now, all signs point to him winning.
Singh needs to win. If the NDP somehow wins Outremont that is also notable. Also notable is if the Liberals somehow win York-Simcoe. Very notable would be if the Greens, Peoples Party, or some other small party wins any of these.
What will not be notable or of any importance is things like how close the Liberals came to winning in Burnaby; the Peoples Party finishing second, even if in all 3 by-elections; how poorly the NDP does in Outremont or how poorly the Liberals do in York-Simcoe; and so on.
The results should be available here when the polls close
regardless, right now, all signs point to him winning.
Singh needs to win. If the NDP somehow wins Outremont that is also notable. Also notable is if the Liberals somehow win York-Simcoe. Very notable would be if the Greens, Peoples Party, or some other small party wins any of these.
What will not be notable or of any importance is things like how close the Liberals came to winning in Burnaby; the Peoples Party finishing second, even if in all 3 by-elections; how poorly the NDP does in Outremont or how poorly the Liberals do in York-Simcoe; and so on.
Sunday, February 24, 2019
Updates; all the 'other' countries
Lets start small and work our way up to the bigger stories.
Here at home, Jagmeet Singh, NDP leader, faces a by-election tomorrow. I will detail the risks in a post tomorrow, but suffice it to say that if he loses, he's done as leader.
In Poland a new party, Wiosna (spring) has been formed; but it threatens to unbalance the '2 party' balance that had been developing there.
Italy continues its existing trends. I will let you know when M5S has fallen close enough to PD to signify a change.
In Germany the SPD is bouncing back towards second place, currently held by the Greens.
New Zealand's governing Labour party is doing well in the polls and could even eke out a majority pending their exact support levels.
Ukraine remains a place to watch; Zelensky seems to have the edge at this time.
United Russia has still yet to bounce back. Math suggests they'd still win 275 seats, compared to 95 Communists, 55 Nationalists, and 25 for Just Russia.
Labor retains a lead in Australia, but its slowly shrinking.
Finland remains interesting. The government is a coalition of KESK, KOK, and PS, or, was at foundation. At the time the three parties held a combined 57% of the vote. Since then, PS was removed from the coalition and a splinter party of theirs, SIN, has retained its cabinet seats. In the latest polls, the 3 coalition parties sit at 34.3%. Even if PS were added to that, it would not reach 50%.
Today there are some interesting votes going on. Okinawa held a referendum, which due to Japan being so far east of me (on the other side of the date line) we know the results of; the "no" side won, which indicated opposition to the US military base in the area.
Additionally, there is a referendum in Cuba, and local elections in part of Italy (Sardinia), alongside elections in Moldova and Senegal. Nigeria voted yesterday but results are not yet available, and the British Virgin Islands votes tomorrow, with Chicago going to the polls on Tuesday.
Here at home, Jagmeet Singh, NDP leader, faces a by-election tomorrow. I will detail the risks in a post tomorrow, but suffice it to say that if he loses, he's done as leader.
In Poland a new party, Wiosna (spring) has been formed; but it threatens to unbalance the '2 party' balance that had been developing there.
Italy continues its existing trends. I will let you know when M5S has fallen close enough to PD to signify a change.
In Germany the SPD is bouncing back towards second place, currently held by the Greens.
New Zealand's governing Labour party is doing well in the polls and could even eke out a majority pending their exact support levels.
Ukraine remains a place to watch; Zelensky seems to have the edge at this time.
United Russia has still yet to bounce back. Math suggests they'd still win 275 seats, compared to 95 Communists, 55 Nationalists, and 25 for Just Russia.
Labor retains a lead in Australia, but its slowly shrinking.
Finland remains interesting. The government is a coalition of KESK, KOK, and PS, or, was at foundation. At the time the three parties held a combined 57% of the vote. Since then, PS was removed from the coalition and a splinter party of theirs, SIN, has retained its cabinet seats. In the latest polls, the 3 coalition parties sit at 34.3%. Even if PS were added to that, it would not reach 50%.
Today there are some interesting votes going on. Okinawa held a referendum, which due to Japan being so far east of me (on the other side of the date line) we know the results of; the "no" side won, which indicated opposition to the US military base in the area.
Additionally, there is a referendum in Cuba, and local elections in part of Italy (Sardinia), alongside elections in Moldova and Senegal. Nigeria voted yesterday but results are not yet available, and the British Virgin Islands votes tomorrow, with Chicago going to the polls on Tuesday.
Friday, February 22, 2019
More on Israel
A projection update, but also a few more notes on nomenclature.
The parties that are running on a united list with Jewish Home are officially not known as the "Jewish Home List" and are running as the overly long "Union of Right-Wing Parties". I will call them simply the "Union".
As such I present the updated projection:
35 - Blue & White
29 - Likud
9 - Arab Opposition
7 - Labour
7 - UTJ
6 - Union
6 - Right
5 - Shas
4 - Yisrael Beiteinu
4 - Meretz
4 - Kulanu*
4 - Arab List*
0 - Gesher*
0 - Zehut*
* = danger of not meeting the threshold
Adding in the most logical single coalition partner, Gantz has 42 to Bibi's 35, but the latter has better relations with the more religious parties, which could bring him up to 47.
Interestingly, Blue & White plus Likud would have a majority; but Blue & White opposes Netanyahu; however should Likud decide he is more trouble than he is worth, it could lead to an interesting situation.
The parties that are running on a united list with Jewish Home are officially not known as the "Jewish Home List" and are running as the overly long "Union of Right-Wing Parties". I will call them simply the "Union".
As such I present the updated projection:
35 - Blue & White
29 - Likud
9 - Arab Opposition
7 - Labour
7 - UTJ
6 - Union
6 - Right
5 - Shas
4 - Yisrael Beiteinu
4 - Meretz
4 - Kulanu*
4 - Arab List*
0 - Gesher*
0 - Zehut*
* = danger of not meeting the threshold
Adding in the most logical single coalition partner, Gantz has 42 to Bibi's 35, but the latter has better relations with the more religious parties, which could bring him up to 47.
Interestingly, Blue & White plus Likud would have a majority; but Blue & White opposes Netanyahu; however should Likud decide he is more trouble than he is worth, it could lead to an interesting situation.
Thursday, February 21, 2019
Deadline day brings final Israeli realignment
The candidate deadline in Israel, technically still an hour away, has brought a major re-alignment to the parties competing in this election.
Lets start with the Arab parties.
The Joint List has broken. Joining with Ahmad Tibi and his Ta'al party is Hadash, the Communists. The two share an somewhat anti-zionist view. On the other side are Balad and Ra'am. While these parties are not exactly "zionist" they do not oppose zionism as stringently. Considering that a majority of Arab voters would like to see an Arab party in government, but that Tibi himself seems to be the most popular Israeli Arab politician at this time, it will be an interesting election to see which 'side' does better.
When it comes to nomenclature, I've decided the two names I will use are the "Arab Opposition" for Ta'al and Hadash, representing their unwillingness to join even a left-wing government, and the "Arab List", as Ra'am's official name is still the "United Arab List", and Ra'am and Balad are the rump of what's left of the Joint List.
Next, we go to perhaps the bigger change, the union of Benny Gantz's Hosen L'Yisrael and Yair Lapid's Yesh Atid into the new "Blue & White" list. The alliance includes a deal to rotate the Premiership, meaning first Gantz, and then Lapid, would serve 2 years as PM.
I won't be updating the projection today as these changes are far too fresh to have been properly polled; but spot polls show Blue and White beating Likud by 36 to 30, 36 to 26, or 35 to 32, pending on the pollster.
Lets start with the Arab parties.
The Joint List has broken. Joining with Ahmad Tibi and his Ta'al party is Hadash, the Communists. The two share an somewhat anti-zionist view. On the other side are Balad and Ra'am. While these parties are not exactly "zionist" they do not oppose zionism as stringently. Considering that a majority of Arab voters would like to see an Arab party in government, but that Tibi himself seems to be the most popular Israeli Arab politician at this time, it will be an interesting election to see which 'side' does better.
When it comes to nomenclature, I've decided the two names I will use are the "Arab Opposition" for Ta'al and Hadash, representing their unwillingness to join even a left-wing government, and the "Arab List", as Ra'am's official name is still the "United Arab List", and Ra'am and Balad are the rump of what's left of the Joint List.
Next, we go to perhaps the bigger change, the union of Benny Gantz's Hosen L'Yisrael and Yair Lapid's Yesh Atid into the new "Blue & White" list. The alliance includes a deal to rotate the Premiership, meaning first Gantz, and then Lapid, would serve 2 years as PM.
I won't be updating the projection today as these changes are far too fresh to have been properly polled; but spot polls show Blue and White beating Likud by 36 to 30, 36 to 26, or 35 to 32, pending on the pollster.
Wednesday, February 20, 2019
Updates; UK and Israel
The split finally happened in the UK, but it was smaller than expected. 7 Labour MPs quit the party to form "The Independent Group" or TIG. They were later joined by an 8th Labour MP.
This morning, 3 Conservative MPs have left their party to join TIG.
Having members from both sides will help to bolster the force as a new centrist group, but TIG is explicitly not a party. I will continue to monitor the situation.
Meanwhile in Israel, Tzipi Livni's career in politics is over, at least for now. After failing to merge into Gantz's Hosen L'Yisrael, she has thrown in the towel and withdrawn her party, Hatnuah, from the election. This will free up some much needed votes from the 1% or 2% of Israelis who were backing the party.
Jewish Home meanwhile have announced their plan to run as a single list with the parties Yachad, Otzma Yehudit, and Tkuma. Tkuma had run with the party in the last election and has two MKs. Otzma and Yachad ran on a single list in 2015 but narrowly failed to meet the threshold. Both parties contain Kahanist factions, which want a one state solution where non-jews have no voting rights. It is likely with this backing the party will, in fact, pass the threshold in the election.
This morning, 3 Conservative MPs have left their party to join TIG.
Having members from both sides will help to bolster the force as a new centrist group, but TIG is explicitly not a party. I will continue to monitor the situation.
Meanwhile in Israel, Tzipi Livni's career in politics is over, at least for now. After failing to merge into Gantz's Hosen L'Yisrael, she has thrown in the towel and withdrawn her party, Hatnuah, from the election. This will free up some much needed votes from the 1% or 2% of Israelis who were backing the party.
Jewish Home meanwhile have announced their plan to run as a single list with the parties Yachad, Otzma Yehudit, and Tkuma. Tkuma had run with the party in the last election and has two MKs. Otzma and Yachad ran on a single list in 2015 but narrowly failed to meet the threshold. Both parties contain Kahanist factions, which want a one state solution where non-jews have no voting rights. It is likely with this backing the party will, in fact, pass the threshold in the election.
Sunday, February 17, 2019
UK drama tomorrow? plus update in Spain.
UK:
There are some rumors that the UK Labour Party may face some drama tomorrow over a possible split similar to the one seen in the 1981 when the SDP broke away from Labour. So far things remain very unclear, but expect possible movement here sooner rather than later.
SPAIN:
The right still hold a majority but its getting mighty narrow as PSOE (the socialist government) has risen in the polls.
There are some rumors that the UK Labour Party may face some drama tomorrow over a possible split similar to the one seen in the 1981 when the SDP broke away from Labour. So far things remain very unclear, but expect possible movement here sooner rather than later.
SPAIN:
The right still hold a majority but its getting mighty narrow as PSOE (the socialist government) has risen in the polls.
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