Israel - full results

Sorry for the short post; but I just wanted to break the parties down into their component parts, so that people can see where those member parties stand in the event the larger party breaks apart.

36 - Likud
15 - Yesh Atid (B&W)
14 - Resilience (B&W)
8 - Shas
6 - Telem (B&W)
6 - Labour
5 - Yisrael Beiteinu
4 - Agudat Israel (UTJ)
4 - Hadash (Arab Oppo)
4 - Meretz
4 - Kulanu
3 - Degel HaTorah (UTJ)
3 - Jewish Home (United Right)
2 - Ta'al (Arab Oppo)
2 - Tkuma (United Right)
2 - Balad (Arab List)
2 - UAL (Arab List)

Alberta "Projection"

This will likely be the only projection I do of Alberta (unless we get a ton of polls in the last few days here) and its not a poll average; rather, its based on my gut feeling that the polls are over-estimating Jason Kenney.

Khan is likely to take his own seat. This is a change from when the election started; but he seems to be doing a well enough job at the campaign to gain a seat for himself.

The Alberta Party as well is doing well, and as such, will likely take multiple seats. Which seats remains hard to say, but these are the three that make the most sense to me at the current time.

Due to what I expect to be UCP weakness, the FCP wins a seat as does Strankman.

Israel - election results

First a quick note that an Alberta "projection" will come out in a few days. Now, on to Israel.

Counting is still being completed, and so some of these may change by a seat or two, and parties right on the edge of the threshold (Arab List and New Right) might find themselves swapping places, but, otherwise, the results are as follows:

35 - Likud
35 - Blue & White
8 - Shas
8 - UTJ
6 - Arab Opposition
6 - Labour
5 - Yisrael Beiteinu
5 - United Right
4 - Meretz (3.64%)
4 - Kunalu (3.56%)
4 - Arab List (3.46%)
0 - New Right (3.14%)
0 - Zehut (2.51%)
0 - Gesher (1.74%)
next largest party on 0.11% of the vote

Grouping this, we end up with results as follows.

35 - Likud
35 - Blue & White
16 - Orthodox
10 - Arabs
10 - Progressives
10 - Pro-Bibi Right
4 - Moderates

Further logical grouping shows us the result of the election

61 - Pro-Bibi
45 - Pro-Gantz
10 - Arabs
4 - Moderates

As such, Netanyahu has effectively been re-elected.

Israeli election - coalitions

An interesting, somewhat explosive article, in Haaretz, outlines some coalition possibilities. 

Lets start with who is willing to coalition with either side, using these numbers from my last post:

44 - Progressive (Blue&White + Labour + Meretz)
38 - Bibi (Likud + Yisrael Beiteinu + United Right)
11 - Orthodox Parties (Shas + UTJ)
6 - New Right
5 - Zehut
5 - Kulanu
11 - Opposition* (Arab List + Arab Opposition)

If we combine those willing to coalition with either side, we get the following:

55 - Gantz (Blue&White + Labour + Meretz + Arabs)
49 - Bibi (Likud + Yisrael Beiteinu + United Right + Shas + New Right)
16 - Either (UTJ + Zehut + Kulanu)

While UTJ (to my knowledge) has not ruled out a coalition with Gantz, for many reasons, it makes more sense to lump them into the Bibi camp.

55 - Gantz (Blue&White + Labour + Meretz + Arabs)
55 - Bibi (Likud + Yisrael Beiteinu + United Right + Shas + New Right + UTJ)
10 - Either (Zehut + Kulanu)

This is where we run into the problem that both Kulanu and Zehut want the finance portfolio. It is quite possible, however, that Zehut could be convinced to join at another price. So what would these two alternative possible governments look like.

65 seat Bibi government

29 - Likud

6 - United Right

6 - UTJ
5 - New Right

5 - Shas

5 - Zehut
5 - Kulanu

4 - Yisrael Beiteinu

This would be a terribly unstable government prone to infighting and likely would not last very long; with another election thus being likely in early 2020.

65 seat Gantz government
29 - Blue & White
10 - Labour
7 - Arab Opposition
5 - Meretz

5 - Zehut
5 - Kulanu
4 - Arab List

This government however would be nearly impossible. It would require both arab parties for a comfortable majority (65 seats) and at least the Tibi-Hadash alliance for a bare majority (61) Gantz himself has said he is not keen on a coalition with the arab parties, and trying to get the more moderate parties (Kulanu and Zehut) on board with pro-arab policies would be difficult if not impossible. This government would likely not even be able to form

Option 3 - Defections

29 - Likud or Blue&White

10 - Defectors

26 - Others (United Right + UTJ + New Right + Shas + Yisrael Beiteinu, or, Labour + Combined Arabs + Meretz) 

More likely coming from Blue&White and going to Likud than the opposite, it is possible that a subset of MK's from either 'side' could break off from their parties to form their own, new, grouping. The group perhaps most susceptible to this is either Blue & White, potentially involving Moshe Ya'alon, with an Anti-bibi faction from Likud being much less likely. It is also possible, especially from the smaller parties with very large-personalty leaders (New Right, Kulanu, Zehut, and Yisrael Beiteinu) could have their MK's abandon the leader if they feel he has put the wrong foot forward. 

Regardless, this is likely going to be one of the more interesting and exciting elections and coalition formations in Israel.

Israel election projection

Scenario 1 - Gantz!

In this scenario, voters have concluded that Gantz is a good choice. This scenario most closely matches the polls as they stood today; the last day of polling. This sees little change from now to the election, and little to no "surprises". 

30 - Blue & White
28 - Likud
10 - Labour
7 - Arab Opposition
6 - New Right
6 - UTJ
5 - Zehut
5 - Shas
5 - United Right

5 - Kulanu
5 - Meretz
4 - Arab List
4 - Yisrael Beiteinu


The end result of this in terms of possible coalitions is as follows.

45 - Progressive (Blue&White + Labour + Meretz)
37 - Bibi (Likud + Yisrael Beiteinu + United Right)
11 - Orthodox Parties (Shas + UTJ)
6 - New Right
5 - Zehut
5 - Kulanu
11 - Opposition* (Arab List + Arab Opposition)

*Gantz has indicated he does not want to enter into a coalition with Arab parties.

This is continued below.



Scenario 2 - Gantz?

In this scenario, voters still have reservations about Gantz. The result of this is that left-progressive types vote for parties outside of Blue & White, Labour is up as a result, as is Meretz. The United Right also gets a boost as "not voting" is an option, and if people have reservations about Gantz, those thinking of "not voting" might well decide to vote. This boosts the vote for all right-wing parties, with United Right being close to this level of support. Yisrael Beiteinu however drops below the threshold. This is in large part due to how their voters seem to behave in polling; indicating that any rush to Likud - as you might want to do to ensure they are the largest party - would harm the party.

32 - Likud

26 - Blue & White
12 - Labour
7 - Arab Opposition
6 - United Right
6 - New Right
6 - UTJ
6 - Meretz
5 - Zehut
5 - Shas
5 - Kulanu

4 - Arab List
0 - Yisrael Beiteinu

44 - Progressive (Blue&White + Labour + Meretz)
38 - Bibi (Likud + Yisrael Beiteinu + United Right)
11 - Orthodox Parties (Shas + UTJ)
6 - New Right
5 - Zehut
5 - Kulanu
11 - Opposition* (Arab List + Arab Opposition)


As you can see, this is very close to the result in Scenario 1, with a difference of a single seat.

Any Progressive alliance would require the two more centrist parties, Zehut and Kulanu, which would increase their numbers to 54 or 55. The final party will be very difficult to find. New Right might have demands Meretz can not live with, much less Labour. If New Right is swapped for Meretz, this brings us to 55 seats in both scenarios, and this would still require an additional party, such as one or both orthodox parties, but this would be difficult of Zehut is to remain.

Bibi has options of his own. The orthodox parties bring him up up to 49 or 48. New Right would bring this to 55/54, but is dependant on Bennett and Bibi patching things up. From there, again, things get complicated. Kulanu is a harder sell given that Bibi is being charged with corruption. Zehut is also difficult to get on side if there are plans to keep the Orthodox parties.

the end result is that 5 parties; UTJ, Shas, New Right, Zehut, and Kulanu, will end up deciding who the next government is.



Of course, this all assumes that Gantz will stick to his promise to not sit in a Bibi government.


edited to add - I forgot to clarify that the projection is "final" as Israeli law prohibits polls in the final 5 days of a campaign.

Ukraine, Israel, etc, and why I don't do US politics much

UKRAINE:
Zelensky, as expected, won the first round of the presidential election, taking 30.2% of the vote. Incumbent Present, Poroshenko, managed to come second at 15.9%, beating former PM Tymoshenko, at 13.4%, who had been polling ahead of him for most of the election.

Its very likely Zelensky wins the second round as well. April 21st is the date for that vote. Parliamentary elections in the country take place in the fall.



ISRAEL:
We are nearing the end of the polling period (April 4th) for the election (April 9th) but the trend continues to be that noted earlier, and a Likud victory is more likely now than it was a few weeks ago, mostly due to voters who had considered Blue & White looking to other options instead. Interestingly, Zehut does seem pretty solid ahead of the threshold.



FINLAND:
There have been a grand total of 2 polls (that I have access to) since the election really began on the 8th of March. I simply lack the data to speak on this.



INDONESIA:
To put it bluntly, there are too many other elections with a greater rate of interest going on right now for me to cover this election in detail.



THAILAND:
I am keeping an eye on the "election" here, but it does not seem free or fair. I may do an update when a new government is formed.



SPAIN:
Mostly stable in the context we are following since the last updates.



USA:
To put it mildly, the main reason I don't cover the US more is that the first question that comes to my mind when I think of the Finnish election is "Where is all the polls". The Thai elections "how many votes did the parties actually take". The Spanish election "will it be PSOE and C's?". For America? The question I have in mind right now is "Why can't Biden be the nominee due to his non-consensual touching of women when Trump can be despite his non-consensual touching of women?"

I hope that makes it clear why I steer clear of this country like the plague.

New PEI poll leads to new projection!