Wednesday, November 4, 2020

US Election. Counting. Part 1.

 I wanted to start by looking at where I was wrong with my last post

The Election-night numbers actually did look pretty much as expected. However. Trump did not declare a win until 2am, and, his declaration equivacated. 

By the next day (today) Biden had not pulled ahead in many places I expected. Florida and Pennsylvania in particular. This means fewer states than expected shifted on e-day. Additionally, the shifts in the states that did flip (Michigan and Wisconsin) were slower than I expected. 

Biden also made his declaration 2 hours earlier than expected, and, was very luke warm about victory.

It does not appear Trump will be making a statement tonight.

As a result, any protest, demonstrations, or violence, will be quite limited. 

We are also starting to get an early sense of the court cases. From what I can gather, it looks like Trump has a good chance of winning any Pennsylvania case, but won't won any case in Wisconsin, Michigan, or Arizona. Considering that I expect Trump to win the vote in Pennsylvania as-is, I do not expect any such suit to change the result. The same will be true for any Biden suits in Georgia or North Carolina. 

Instead, it may all come down to how Nevada votes, and, any Nevada related suits. Sadly, they do not plan to release any new results until noon tomorrow.

So, we wait.  

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