Sunday, October 22, 2017

Japan, results

Results are nearly complete, and with the possibility of one or two seats changing, the results are as indicated in this table:

The Government has won the majority they need. The LDP has a majority in the chamber, and has a large enough majority to guarantee chairmanship of the committees. As well with their allies in the NKP they command the 310 seats needed to amend the constitution.

The LDP however has been expected to win by a large margin for a while as even without a 310 majority, parties like KNT by in large support the amendment which would allow Japan to re-arm and militarize.

Abe's victory was expected. As such the 'winners' of the election are the CDP. Originally projected to get a dozen seats, they've beat the KNT in total seat count. The Democrats split in three with the party leadership joining the KNT for the election with the plan to re-unite the party after the election. Many members decided to run as Independents to protest this, and some on the left created the CDP, which, has been wildly successful.

After a few hours of searching through wikipedia, I've divided up the Independent candidates and KNT candidates by weather or not I feel it is likely they would join the CDP after the election. This is a maximum estimate. As such the CDP can be expected to have up to 96 seats when parliament holds its first session, and may well end with 80 or less.

In the end, Prime Minister Abe gets what he wants, he can amend the constitution, and can continue his policies for another 4 years.

You can click here for the introduction to the election, as this helps provide context for who these parties are.

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