Sunday, June 4, 2017

Tories set for Majority

As the past projection was based on trends, this one is based nearly exclusively on current polls, and suggests that the Tories could win an effective majority.


  1. I think the latest attacks probably freezes the race and ends the Labour momentum. I think the Conservatives gains between 5-15, mostly at the expense of the SNP. LD gains under 10 seats and Labour loses roughly the same.

  2. I'm torn between the strengthening polls for Labour and knowing that polarization like this often doesn't work in the challenger's favour. I think the predictions of 350~ seats for the Tories is about right, and Labour sits anywhere between 200 to 230, depending on the performance of the Lib Dems and Greens. I'm so sad to see the LDs barely get any traction this election, but I suppose two years is hardly enough time to recover from that sort of blowout loss.

  3. Yeah, the early election appear to have done the most damage to the LibDems. They were woefully unprepared and they are normally very dependent on very well organized and very well targeted campaigns which usually net more seat gains than a uniform swing, but not this year.