Wednesday, April 12, 2017

The further problem with the BC Polls

Despite all of this, I really can't say what the 'real' poll numbers in BC are. Why?

Look at the actual polls.

Now look at the polls from last time.

This one, in particular. Page 5.

Notice how the NDP is under-represented. For some reason, not enough people admitted to voting NDP to the pollster. In the end, the NDP lost.

In fact, this has traditionally been how to spot which party will lose, the one that's under-represented. Take Alberta for example. Wildrose was lacking.

The only reason I've not used this in BC is none of the polling firms will come out and tell us their numbers for "voted last time", you have to do math to even try to get a picture, they are unwilling to share their actual breakdowns; and I think a key reason is they are fully aware of how far off the mark these numbers are.

Put simply; this suggests the NDP is headed for a massive majority.

However, that's unclear, and, as such the answer to "what are the actual polls in BC" is something I never thought I'd type on my professional blog:


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