Wednesday, May 18, 2016

Response: mea culpa

538 recently put out this article
Explaining how they screwed up predicting Donald Trump's rise.

While I tend to steer clear of US politics (the US has less of a political system and more of a personality system) I also made a terrible but similar mistake; but with Bernie Sanders.

While my error was not recorded on the blog, it was still something I said quite often, that Sanders has no hope in hell of winning.

While I encourage everyone to read the article linked above, I have taken one important note out of the victories of people like Rob Ford:

Voters these days are far more willing to accept an extremist candidate than they were just a decade or two ago.


  1. I mean, Bernie basically doesnt have a chance of winning, or if there is one ifs infinitesimally small. Or did you assume he would win Vermont and nothing else?

    Also I disagree with that assessment of American politics. Much is influenced by personality, yes, but there is also a lot involved in terms of balancing demographics and interest groups in order to secure votes.