Tuesday, May 3, 2016

Response: Core Blue/Red states

This is a response to this article:

The article is generally correct, Clinton has a massive advantage over Trump and will be the next President.

However it makes a key assumption that is incorrect; that of what states are solidly Democratic.

Of the "blue states" on the map, not all of them are as solid as one may think.

Florida is, of course, an issue, and the article addresses that, but there are 3 states in particular that could also cause problems.

Sure states like Washington and Minnesota could vote Republican, even New Jersey and Maine under the right circumstances, but in general, 3 of these "blue states" have vote patterns that could be concerning.

Excepting a short period in 2009-2010, the Republicans have controlled the lower house in this state since 1995, with the state Senate being solidly Republican since at least 2000 (before which I had trouble finding records)
Federally, both House and Senate delegations have leaned Republican in the last few decades.
The big hope is that the Governorship has been roughly evenly split, and that the state does trend Democratic in Presidential elections.
Despite this, there is clear support for Republican policies within the state that could cause concern for a Democratic candidate for President.

This state's transition from Democratic to Republican has been much slower, with the Federal (congressional) delegations leaning towards the Democrats (in the past few decades) Even the state legislature leans Democratic historically, but they've also elected Scott Walker, a fairly extreme Republican as Governor, not once, but three times, one of those being a recall election. This state can stomach the sort of "extreme" policies that someone like Trump or even Cruz may propose, and could well vote Republican.

while both the above states are trending towards the Republicans, Michigan has been doing so with greater speed and consistency; even if it's a bit earlier in the process. This has been caused by economic troubles, and can be seen in the daily national headlines as more and more "horror stories" come out of the state about the poor quality of it's public services.
While the state could take a strong swing in the other direction, should it continue on it's current path, it will be the first state to fall out of the "blue state" category, likely in or around 2020 or 2024. It is even possible for the state to vote Republican in this coming election.

All in all the article is a good read, but these "small " caveats are important, and do need to be pointed out.

1 comment:

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