Monday, October 25, 2021

25OCT2021 updates

 Things are on the move in Czechia. Babis, the Prime Minister, and the speaker of the house (a member of his party), are expected to activate the portion of the constitution that allows them to step in to replace an ailing president. Not to fraudulently give their party a victory, but to ask the opposition leader to form government. While things worked this time, it would only take 2 bad actors to cause this system to break down in entirety. As such, I suspect this will be changed in the future. 

In Iceland, negotiations between the 3 largest parties - who also makeup the current government - are expected to continue. It would retain the same Prime Minister, despite her party losing seats. 

Nunavut holds elections today. I will not be covering it the same way I do elections elsewhere, for the same reason I avoid covering elections in many presidential systems - my focus is on parties in the Westminster and Westminster-like systems. - Nunavut has no parties, and is this impossible to cover in this manner. I will, however, consider looking at the results after the election, to see if I can't lump the candidates into 'parties' (likely incumbent vs challenger) to see if I can't make sense of the results. 

On the 31st, elections occur in Japan. My current thoughts (which have changed since my post over the weekend) is as follows:

255 - LDP
120 - CDP
25 - NKP
25 - ISH
20 - JCP
20 - others

Polls in Japan are notoriously difficult to 'read'. They always include the undecided voters. (Thus, instead of putting a two-party poll at 50%-50% with 20% undecided, it would say 40% and 40%) While this might not seem like a major problem, it is, as, undecided voters in japan like to break for the main opposition party. Often you'll see polls saying the LDP will win 45% of the vote, the main opposition party will win 15%, all other parties will in 20%, with 20% undecided, but, on election day, the LDP wins 45%, the other parties 20%, and the main opposition takes 35%. 

As such it is very difficult to try to interpret polling results. The 2 most recent polls have the LDP at 30% and 38%. the two before that have them at 30% and 33%. The two before that both at 44% while the two before that at 36% and 39%. In nearly any other country, this would cause suspicion at how on earth a party could vary so widely, but in Japan, this is normal. The poll with the LDP at 33% shows the CDP at 21%. the very next poll has them at 10%. Turning this into potential results is thus as much a guessing game as it involves math. 

Worse, just when you think you understand it, all of those above polls are "party vote" polls. Normally polls show "party identification". Those polls, in October alone, show the CDP as low as 5% and as high as 14%, and the LDP as low as 32% and as high as 51%. 

So who knows. I expect the LDP to have a majority, perhaps only with their coalition partner, or, perhaps on their own. We shall find out next week. 

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