Monday, January 18, 2021

Updates 18JAN2021

 Lets go topic by topic

The Mob

So, where is everyone? That's actually 'the' question. As I hinted at in my previous post, real power comes not from storming buildings, but from trying to seize people. Those people know that, and are not exactly going to let themselves be taken by the mob. The mob also knows this, and thus, waits. The "weekend" (in this context) is not over. It ends at noon on the 20th, and, potentially, extends to later in the day as well. 


I do not have enough new polls to be confidant in any new projections.


The country elects a new president on the 24th; but, I'm not covering it. Why? The incumbent has not polled below 55% for a year, nor have any of his opponents managed to get as high as 20%. He will be re-elected. He is backed by one of the two major parties, the other major party is officially backing nobody. 


Elections will be held here on the 13th of Feb. Expect multiple posts between now and then. 


This troubled region is holding elections in may. Expect posts on this as well. 


Polls suggest the result of the next election would be as follows:

271 CDU
142 GRN
113 SPD
73 AFD
59 LNK
51 FDP

Assuming 709 seats (the current number; which includes over 100 overhang seats)


It is difficult to project results 3 years out from an election; but Italy presents a unique challenge in that they will likely be changing the electoral system. We know they are reducing the number of seats to 400 however, so, I will work with that and use proportional representation with a low threshold to calculate the remainder:

98 Lega (Populist Right, like Trump)
83 PD (Progressive)
69 FdI (Nationalist)
60 M5S (Populist Left)
33 FI (Berlusconi) 
57 Other (left or moderate)

This would give the 3 main right-wing parties exactly half of the seats, and that fact is likely what is driving the left-wing government to consider changes to the electoral system.


Current polling suggests the following

38 VVD
23 PVV
18 CDA
13 D66
11 GL
10 SP
11 PvdA
7 CU
5 PvdD
4 FvD
6 Others

More posts will be made prior to the March elections, covering events including the recent mass resignation of the government due to a scandal. 

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