Tuesday, January 26, 2021

26JAN2021 updates - covid, israel, newfoundland, canadan alternate history

 I wanted to take a look at my past posts on Covid (there are many) to see if/when/where I was wrong/right.

1 - Total number of cases -- I was very wrong about this, in large part, because humanity is dumber than I expected. 

2 - Time before a return to normal -- Since the very early days, 2023 has felt like when things will return to a 2019 sense of normal, and I still agree with this. While 2022 will likely see many things returning to normal, we will still be deep in the economic effects of Covid; in particular, the economic rebound. 2023 really does feel like when things will return to a 2019 level of normal.

3 - My focus on pivot point 3 -- At the time of this post, there was worry that this was "it". This would be the virus to end all viruses. This would be 1918 all over again. To put that into context; that would mean we have over 100,000,000 deaths by this point (Jan of 2021). Pivot Point 3 was showing that this would not be the case. In fact, looking at the spread of Covid, and vaccine deployment, it seems we will top out at between 2.75M and 3.75M total deaths. I do not think I made that clear enough in the post.

Israel (March 23rd 2021 election)

A number of parties are at, or, near the threshold. As a reminder, the threshold in Israel is 3.25% of the vote. This is roughly 150,000 voters. Yaron Zelenkha's NEP is polling at about 2.8% (according to one poll), while Huldai's Israelis party is polling at/above the threshold, and thus, possibly is set for a potential 4 seats. Both the Religious Zionist party (former part of Bennett's Yamina) and Labor are near the threshold, either polling at 4 seats, or ~2.5%. Gantz's Blue and White is also at 4 seats. Meretz is at 5 seats, which, gives them a bit of a cushion, but with so many other left-wing parties, who knows of this will hold. It is, however, very unlikely that all 3 of the left parties Huldai, Gantz, and Meretz (the left), will fail to cross the threshold, as, voters are likely to break for one if all 3 seem below the mark. 

I am still fascinated by Joint List being down at 10 seats. I've not yet been able to figure out exactly where former Joint List voters have gone, but given past voting demographic trends, some likely have gone to Bibi, however unlikely that sounds, while others are likely backing Lapid, or even Sa'ar. Israeli Arab voters are still Israeli voters, concerned with economics and Covid policy, and thus do indeed have reasons to vote for other parties. 

Newfoundland (Feb 13th 2021 election)

Comparing events to previous elections, and reading between the lines of the few polls we do have, it is likely the Liberals could win a majority here. The NDP is unlikely to repeat their abysmal 2019 performance, and may gain a few seats, but are unlikely to win even 3 additional seats. The 'problem' with prediction elections in places like this is that local factors matter quite a bit. You might swing 1000 voters due to local factors, but when you have ridings with 5000 voters total, these swings can make or break a campaign. 

Alternate History

I've always been fascinated with alternate history ideas. In the past I've worked on some where Western Canada breaks off from Canada. I think I may do so again, but, set in a hypothetical future. Any feedback on how welcome such a post might be on this blog would be helpful. 

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