Friday, January 22, 2021

22JAN20201 Israel updates

 The relative infrequency of polling, and fast pace of changes, make it difficult to do any purely mathematical projections. As such I've built sort of a trendline, with some "guesswork" put in, as to where the parties will go from here. In particular, I can see the smaller parties all collectively failing to cross the threshold. This would mean the numbers taken by the larger parties would have to change. As such a 'projection' that involves said guesswork is as follows:

30 - Bibi
18 - Lapid
16 - Haradim
16 - Sa'ar
14 - Bennett
12 - Arabs
8 - Lieberman
6 - Left
0 - Remainder

46 - Bibi + Haradim (Pro-Bibi)
The current "Pro-Bibi" camp. Short of the needed 61 for a majority

46 - Haradim + Bennett + Sa'ar (Right w/o Bibi)
Replacing Bibi with non-Bibi Right parties. Short of 61. 

56 - Lapid + Sa'ar + Bennett + Lieberman (Anti-Bibi)
The main "Anti-Bibi" parties; Short of 61, but... 

Any of; the Left, Lieberman, or even just one of the two Haradim parties, puts such an Anti-Bibi coalition into majority territory. The question then becomes if the three personalities of Lapid, Sa'ar, and Bennett would even be willing to work together. 

As you can see, this does not make the situation any less chaotic. It will likely come down to people like Lapid, Lieberman, Bennett, and Sa'ar, and this question:

"Am I willing to work with my political enemies if it means Bibi faces the trial I think he rightfully deserves."

No comments:

Post a Comment