Thursday, March 5, 2020

Thoughts - US (Sanders/Biden)

Delegate estimate (Dem)
1749-2249 Biden 
1550-2050 Sanders 
120-240 Other 

General election estimate (EV and popvote for candidate)
Sanders 240-295 (47-51) 
Biden 200-255 (45-49)

In short; in the general election, the best Biden can do, is lose. He can get 255 EV's at most. 

Sanders can win (295) but, he could still lose (240).

Frankly I put the odds of Sanders winning the general at 40% or 33%, while Biden's chances are under 1%.


This depends on there being no major change. If, for example, US coronavirus cases hit 50,000, that'd be a major change. 

In short; Trump is very likely to be re-elected given how things are currently going. 

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