Tuesday, March 31, 2020

The numbers as I understand them.

With a fully functional healthcare system that is not overwhelmed, 1% of people with Covid, die. 

With a system that is overwhelmed, that number rises. It's unclear how high, but a ceiling is 10%. 

2/3rds of those who die from Covid would have died at some other point in 2020 from other health issues.

The rate of ICU care per case is relatively stable across the world, and can be used to estimate the amount of undertesting and underreporting.

Every location will differ, as, start times were different; but we will reach the inflection point on or around easter.

If everyone behaves and sticks to social distancing, we can be out of this by early may

Everyone is not behaving

If you are under 65, your chances of dying from Covid are low.

Things with low chances still happen.

Things with low chances still have low chances to happen even if they happen sometimes.

China has under-reported. 

Italy has under-tested.

Iran seems to have managed to do both.

When all is said and done, the US will have been the worst impacted, both in terms of actual infections/deaths and reported infections/deaths.

Remember. This is just my understanding of what I read. I am not a doctor. I am not even a mathematician. Don't take health advice from a political blog. 

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