Sunday, March 1, 2020

Israel elections tomorrow

Israel goes to the polls tomorrow, and trends seem to favour Likud. 

Assuming the current polling trend prior to the polling blackout continues, we could be looking at a result something like this:

Likud - 37 
Blue & White - 32 
Orthodox - 15 
Joint List - 14 
Left - 9 
Yamina - 7 
Yisrael - 6

A note of caution, however, that we have indeed seen, in the past, the trend headed into the polling blackout, actually be reversed. As such, it could be Blue & White that comes out with 37 seats and Likud with 32. 

If Likud does come out ahead, this will; put Bibi tantalizingly close to his majority. 37+15+7=59. This would mean it would only take two people from other parties to peel off to support Bibi in order to get him a majority. 

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