Wednesday, September 18, 2019

Israel election, Bibi loses seats

While ballots are still being counted, and as such, things can change by a seat or two, current results look as follows:

32 - Blue and White
32 - Likud
12 - Joint List
9 - Yisrael Beiteinu
9 - Shas
8 - UTJ
7 - United Right
6 - Labour
5 - Democratic Union

This means Bibi's coalition 'government' of 60 seats, now has only 55, all the losses coming from Likud itself. Likud, in fact, seems to have dropped to second behind Blue and White.

Bibi's options for a majority are now extremely limited. Yisrael Beiteinu doubled down on their opposition to the religious parties, and those parties have themselves found their vote bolstered. The only alternative that pops out is an invite for Labour to join the coalition.

Outside of this, any coalition would be extremely tricky to make, with perhaps the most likely, being the very unlikely coalition of Gantz with Labour and the Democratic Union, along with Yisrael Beiteinu, and support (though not in official coalition) of the Joint List. Such a coalition is extraordinarily unlikely, however, but remains the second most likely coalition that seems possible.

The only other 'obvious' choice would be one where Bibi himself resigns (nearly impossible), and Likud and Blue and White form their own government together.

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