Monday, July 22, 2019

Ukraine parliament election results.

With 70% of the votes counted, the results of the election are below
(PR + FPTP)

248 - President (123 + 125)
50 - Opposition (37 + 13*)
26 - Poroshenko (24 + 2)
26 - Tymoshenko (23 + 3)
18 - Voice (18 + 0)
1 - Svoboda (0 + 1) Neo-Nationalist
1 - Self Reliance (0 + 1) Moderate
52 - Independent (0 + 52)

*This includes 7 candidates officially endorsed by the main Bloc, and 6 by the secondary Bloc that broke off from the main Bloc earlier this year.

As I suspected was possible, a large number of Independents was elected. Generally, in post-soviet countries, these tend to be people who support or supported the old soviet consensus. This is not always the case however, but, it is likely that at least 2/3rds of these people would be unfriendly towards Zelensky, the President.

This gives Zelensky 58% of the seats, and, a clear majority. The first single-party parliamentary majority won in Ukraine since the collapse of the USSR.

For anyone looking to compare this to past elections, note that Tymoshenko and Poroshenko both supported the "Orange Revolution" while the Opposition Bloc - Literally its name - was formed after said revolution out of the Party of Regions.

With only 70% of the vote counted, there could still be seat swings, but I would not expect any party to gain or lose more than a handful of seats compared to the above list. Voice is more than 1 point above the threshold, while the Radical Party is more than 1 point below it, meaning likely no change there.



Lastly, in Japan, the popular vote figures are now available.

35% - LDP
13% - Komeito
48% - Coalition Government

16% - CDP
10% - Restoration
9% - Communist
7% - Democratic Party
5% - Reiwa (Personalist, Yamamoto Taro)
2% - Social Democrats
2% - Anti-NHK Party (state media)

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