Sunday, July 21, 2019

Ukraine exit poll results, and more on Japan

I've averaged all the exit polls and have thus produced the following results:

In the Proportional list, the results are as follows
126 - President('s party)
37 - Opposition Bloc
24 - Poroshenko('s party)
21 - Tymoshenko('s party)
17 - Voice (Pro-President Liberals)

For the FPTP seats, I've determined the following:
129 - President
31 - Opposition Bloc
23 - Poroshenko
14 - Tymoshenko
2 - Voice

For those wondering, I made the following adjustments: the Opposition Bloc was given 20 extra seats, Poroshenko was given 18, and Tymoshenko was given 10. These are ballpark figures based on their Presidential results. Otherwise, I simply used the 'square method' to estimate the FPTP vote result; squaring the poll result and using that to determine the share of the vote.

Thus the totals are as follows:

255 - President
68 - Opposition Bloc
47 - Poroshenko
35 - Tymoshenko
19 - Voice

This gives the President 3/5ths of the assembly; which may or may not be important pending how constitutional amendments are done. (it does not appear to be with 2/3rds seemingly required, a number not reached even combining Voice and the President's Party.)

In Japan meanwhile the opposition alliance against the government has scored an unexpected victory.

Abe Shinzo, the Prime Minister, called the election with the intention of winning a 2/3rds majority and thus having a mandate to amend the constitution. Going into the election, Abe, along with opposition parties that supported this amendment, held 2/3rds of the seats, but, the results of the election has seen the government lose that 2/3rds majority. As such, this is a far more devastating blow to Abe than I'd originally understood it to be.

Regardless, the LDP has won handily, and while it lost its majority in the chamber, it still retains that majority with Komeito, the party with which it forms the coalition government.

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