Friday, June 21, 2019

Ukraine - Parliamentary projection

I happened to notice, on one of my regular checks, that the polls in Ukraine are quite stable. This allows me to offer you a quick projection. Note that I've done some minor rounding - 5 seats or so - to help show which parties are neck and neck and which parties are ahead of the pack. Also note that instead of party names, I'm mostly going with the name of the leader, as, this tends to be how politics work in Ukraine.

250 - Zelensky (President)
40 - Opposition (Pro-Russian)
25 - Tymoshenko (Pro-West)
25 - Poroshenko (Former President)
25 - Vakarchuk (Progressive)
56 - Others, mostly Independents

This would give Zelensky a majority, a feat last matched in the mostly-free 1990 election by the Communist Party of the Soviet Union (Ukraine) or CPSU-(U) which won a large majority in Parliament.

This majority would be lost when that Parliament voted to ban the CPSU-(U), with the party's members joining or forming various other parties, or, becoming Independents.

No comments:

Post a Comment