Tuesday, March 12, 2019

Summary of upcoming elections

March 31: Ukraine, President

Given the polls, two of these three people will make it to the final round: Zelensky, Tymoshenko, Poroshenko - the only question is which two, and polls over the next week or two should help clear that up.

April 9: Israel, Parliament

There has been some interesting movement in the polls, that I plan to detail in a post later this week.

April 14: Finland, Parliament

Need some additional polling for any conclusions, but PS seems to be on the way up.

April 17: Indonesia, Parliament and President

The Incumbent President seems on the way to re-election easily. In Parliament, PDI-P is up in the polls from the last election, while Golkar is down. Gerindra is up, and Demokrat is down. The main result of this is to strengthen the leading party in both the Pro-Widodo and Pro-Prabowo camps, with Gerindra (right wing, Prabowo) and PDI-P (left wing, Widodo) now the two leading parties according to the polls. Widodo and his allies are expected to win roughly 62-38.

April 28: Spain, Parliament

The polls are fairly consistent in saying that the right-wing alliance will be able to win 160-170 seats; while the left is closer to 145-155. The 'problem' is that 176 seats are needed for a majority and neither side has that. This could leave the regional parties as kingmakers; the only problem here is that national vs regional power squabbles is what caused the government to collapse in the first place.

May 8: South Africa, Parliament

Polls are scarce in South Africa, but suggest that while ANC will retain their majority, EFF may end up doubling in size, but that DA is likely to remain the largest opposition party.

May 18: (maybe) Australia, Parliament

In order for Australia to hold a 'traditional' election of the House and half the Senate, they'd have to do it on May 18th. However, should the government decide, it could simply hold only the half-Senate elections on this date, and hold off until November for house elections (which polls suggest they would lose)


  1. We have some more this spring and fall too. Australia looks like Labor is heavily favoured to win, other ones as shown below

    Denmark - June and at this point the red alliance (left wing) is definitely the favourite and most likely Social Democrats will supply the PM.

    Belgium - May (coincides with European elections). Greens up, Liberals flat, Christian Democrats flat, Socialist flat, right wing populists mixed. Due to how many parties as usual this will come down to whom can put together a coalition

    European elections - May - big question is will UK participate in these or not. If they leave the EU before May 22nd no, but if after they must. With En Marche likely to join ALDE should help them, right wing populists should gain, Both EPP and PES should decline a bit but EPP still in front.

    Andorran elections - Who knows here, what scant polling there is seems to favour left but who knows.

    Indian election - May or June. Modi will almost certainly be re-elected question is will it be a majority or a hung parliament.

    A lot more in the fall, but save that for later.

    1. aye. full list of what I'm actively following beyond what I listed in my post

      japan (upper house)
      ukraine (parliament)
      new zealand
      japan (general)