Tuesday, March 26, 2019

PEI goes to the polls

Reports are that the writ for the PEI election will be dropped tonight (within the hour it seems) for an election roughly a month from now.

I wanted to quickly update my projection, which is as follows:

my spreadsheet was literally mis-aligned. It is not districts 9 and 20 the greens are just barely winning, its districts 10 and 21. It is not 8 and 4 they could win, its 9 and 5 they could win.

This is 11 Greens, and 8 for both the Liberals and Tories.

It's possible districts 5 and 9 will go Green as well, but that would still not quite be a Majority.

If the polls are right, we are looking at a minority government, no matter who wins, and given the small sample sizes, PEI's penchant for voting based on local issues, and the natural imbalance built into FPTP, nearly anything is truly possible this election. It would not surprise be if the Greens took 20 seats, and it would not surprise me if they took only 1. The same is true for the other parties, except, for them, I could see a total wipeout. Even the NDP could win a seat, or two!!

Regardless, my current projection, is for a Green Minority.

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