Sunday, March 3, 2019

General update - everything is stable

Polls in Israel are relatively stable. They are relatively stable in Spain. Even in Japan they are stable; note that Japanese polling is "weird" and you need to know how to read it.

In fact they are "stable" in every country I follow.

Stable, however, is relative.

South Africa, Denmark, Finland, and Portugal, have ALL seen very recent moves in the polls; but in each case, we need more polls but we can declare that significant.

Germany, Poland, and Italy all have poll movements that continue in the same direction that I've already noted.

In short, a key reason for the lack of updates it simply that there is nothing to update. Everything is quiet right now.

That being said here is what I'm keeping my eye on

1 - Is Yisrael Beiteinu's dropping below the threshold temporary (will end in a week or two) or permanent (will continue to the election)

2 - Is the current trend in Spain, of both the Left and Right having just below what is needed for a majority, temporary or permanent?

3 - How far will the SPD rise in Germany now that's it surpassed the Greens?

4 - When will M5S fall below PD, or, will it stop before it even reaches that level; if it does fall below them does M5S vanish?

5 - Is the recent poll in South Africa legit (indicative of a trend) or a one off (not indicative of a trend)

6 - How high will the new party in Poland get?

7 - Is PS's rise in Finland legit or a one off?

8 - Is the drop in the People's Party in Denmark legit or a one off?

And If these things are permanent and/or legit, I'd want to know why (IE I will do some research and tell you why)

For now however, all I have are questions.

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